5-Year Treasury Note Futures (September 2026) (ZFU6) IV/HV History
Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.
5-Year Treasury Note Futures (September 2026) (ZFU6) operates in the Interest-Rate Futures sector, specifically the Interest-Rate Futures industry, listed on CBOT. 5-Year Treasury Note Futures September 2026 contract: CBOT 5-Year Treasury Note futures (ZF): intermediate-maturity US Treasury futures used for curve and duration trades.
Snapshot as of Jul 16, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $106.70
- ATM IV
- 3.1%
- HV 20-Day
- 3.5%
As of Jul 16, 2026, 5-Year Treasury Note Futures (September 2026) (ZFU6) ATM implied volatility is 3.1%. 20-day realized volatility is 3.5%, producing an IV-HV spread of -0.4 vol points. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied, an inversion that can signal a pending IV expansion.
How ZFU6 iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on 5-Year Treasury Note Futures (September 2026) options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 3.1% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the ZFU6 IV vs HV chart
The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 3.1%, against 3.5% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is currently below realized by 0.4 vol points, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying for the move - rare and often a setup for IV expansion. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.
ZFU6 IV/HV regimes and trade selection
Using ZFU6 vol history alongside the term structure
The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.
ZFU6 IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context
Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.
Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →
Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for ZFU6 over the last ~32 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.
Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.
| Date | ATM IV | HV 20d | HV 60d | IV Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 16, 2026 | 3.1% | 3.5% | - | - |
| Jul 15, 2026 | 3.3% | 3.6% | - | - |
| Jul 14, 2026 | 3.4% | 3.5% | - | - |
| Jul 13, 2026 | 4.1% | 3.4% | - | - |
| Jul 10, 2026 | 3.0% | 3.6% | - | - |
| Jul 9, 2026 | 3.0% | 3.6% | - | - |
| Jul 8, 2026 | 3.3% | 3.6% | - | - |
| Jul 7, 2026 | 3.0% | 3.5% | - | - |
| Jul 6, 2026 | 2.7% | 3.7% | - | - |
| Jul 2, 2026 | 2.7% | 3.7% | - | - |
| Jul 1, 2026 | 3.1% | 3.8% | - | - |
| Jun 30, 2026 | 3.2% | 3.7% | - | - |
| Jun 29, 2026 | 3.1% | 3.6% | - | - |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 3.1% | 3.6% | - | - |
| Jun 25, 2026 | 3.1% | 3.6% | - | - |
Frequently asked ZFU6 iv/hv history questions
- Is ZFU6 options pricing rich or cheap right now?
- As of Jul 16, 2026, 5-Year Treasury Note Futures (September 2026) (ZFU6) ATM IV is 3.1% against 20-day realized volatility of 3.5%. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied: an inversion of the typical equity volatility risk premium that often precedes IV expansion.
- What is the ZFU6 variance risk premium?
- The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. ZFU6 is currently pricing inverted to the historical pattern, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
- What does ZFU6 IV rank mean for strategy selection?
- IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. ZFU6's current rank signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.