E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) IV/HV History
Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.
E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) operates in the Equity Index Futures sector, specifically the Equity Index Futures industry, listed on CME. E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures December 2026 contract: CME E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ): tracks the Nasdaq 100 large-cap technology and growth index.
Snapshot as of Oct 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $30142.50
- ATM IV
- 19.8%
- HV 20-Day
- 16.4%
- HV 60-Day
- 18.7%
As of Oct 15, 2026, E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) ATM implied volatility is 19.8%. 20-day realized volatility is 16.4%, producing an IV-HV spread of +3.5 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium.
How NQZ6 iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 19.8% and dealer gamma exposure is negative, so dealer hedging amplifies directional moves. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the NQZ6 IV vs HV chart
The dual-line chart below tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 19.8%, against 16.4% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 3.5 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.
NQZ6 IV/HV regimes and trade selection
Using NQZ6 vol history alongside the term structure
The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Term structure is roughly flat at -0.000, no strong near vs far premium being priced. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.
NQZ6 IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context
Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. The ratio of HV-20 (16.4%) to HV-60 (18.7%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series below to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.
Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →
Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for NQZ6 over the last ~32 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.
Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.
| Date | ATM IV | HV 20d | HV 60d | IV Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 15, 2026 | 19.8% | 16.4% | 18.7% | - |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 19.7% | 17.3% | 18.7% | - |
| Oct 13, 2026 | 18.2% | 15.4% | 18.5% | - |
| Oct 12, 2026 | 18.0% | 15.7% | 18.5% | - |
| Oct 9, 2026 | 17.8% | 15.7% | 18.8% | - |
| Oct 8, 2026 | 18.9% | 15.9% | 19.1% | - |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 18.3% | 15.5% | 18.9% | - |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 18.4% | 15.5% | 19.0% | - |
| Oct 5, 2026 | 19.0% | 15.5% | 19.4% | - |
| Oct 2, 2026 | 18.6% | 15.4% | 19.4% | - |
| Oct 1, 2026 | 19.7% | 15.4% | 19.6% | - |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 19.3% | 15.4% | 19.6% | - |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 19.2% | 16.4% | 19.9% | - |
| Sep 28, 2026 | 18.9% | 16.4% | 20.1% | - |
| Sep 25, 2026 | 18.1% | 15.8% | 20.3% | - |
Frequently asked NQZ6 iv/hv history questions
- Is NQZ6 options pricing rich or cheap right now?
- As of Oct 15, 2026, E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) ATM IV is 19.8% against 20-day realized volatility of 16.4%. NQZ6 options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 3.5 vol points.
- What is the NQZ6 variance risk premium?
- The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. NQZ6 is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
- What does NQZ6 IV rank mean for strategy selection?
- IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. NQZ6's current rank signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.