What is the current NQZ6 expected move?

As of Oct 15, 2026, E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) has an expected move of 5.69% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $28428.15 to $31856.85 from the current $30142.50. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the NQZ6 expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is NQZ6 expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) operates in the Equity Index Futures sector, specifically the Equity Index Futures industry, listed on CME. E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures December 2026 contract: CME E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ): tracks the Nasdaq 100 large-cap technology and growth index.

Snapshot as of Oct 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $30142.50
Expected Move: 5.7%
Implied High: $31856.85
Implied Low: $28428.15
Front DTE: 29 days

As of Oct 15, 2026, E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) has an expected move of 5.69%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $28428.15 to $31856.85 from the current $30142.50. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

NQZ6 Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) pricing an expected move of 5.69% from $30142.50, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the NQZ6 implied-range chart

The shaded range below shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 5.69%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $28428.15 to $31856.85. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

NQZ6 expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. NQZ6 term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.000), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing NQZ6 structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. NQZ6 put/call volume ratio currently at 1.06 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for NQZ6 derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30142.50 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 16, 2026	1	21.0%	1.1%	$30473.78	$29811.22
Oct 19, 2026	4	15.6%	1.6%	$30634.59	$29650.41
Oct 20, 2026	5	16.5%	1.9%	$30725.74	$29559.26
Oct 21, 2026	6	17.2%	2.2%	$30808.40	$29476.60
Oct 22, 2026	7	18.2%	2.5%	$30900.32	$29384.68
Oct 23, 2026	8	18.6%	2.7%	$30971.27	$29313.73
Oct 26, 2026	11	17.4%	3.0%	$31051.23	$29233.77
Oct 27, 2026	12	17.8%	3.2%	$31114.84	$29170.16
Oct 28, 2026	13	18.7%	3.5%	$31207.27	$29077.73
Oct 29, 2026	14	19.6%	3.8%	$31300.67	$28984.33
Oct 30, 2026	15	20.1%	4.1%	$31368.14	$28916.86
Nov 6, 2026	22	20.3%	5.0%	$31641.14	$28643.86
Nov 13, 2026	29	19.8%	5.6%	$31828.32	$28456.68
Nov 20, 2026	36	19.8%	6.2%	$32018.92	$28266.08
Nov 27, 2026	43	19.4%	6.7%	$32153.19	$28131.81
Nov 30, 2026	46	19.2%	6.8%	$32195.52	$28089.48
Dec 18, 2026	64	19.6%	8.2%	$32620.92	$27664.08

Frequently asked NQZ6 expected move questions

What is the current NQZ6 expected move?: As of Oct 15, 2026, E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (December 2026) (NQZ6) has an expected move of 5.69% over the next 29 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $28428.15 to $31856.85 from the current $30142.50. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the NQZ6 expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is NQZ6 expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.