E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (September 2026) (NQU6) IV/HV History
Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.
E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (September 2026) (NQU6) operates in the Equity Index Futures sector, specifically the Equity Index Futures industry, listed on CME. E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures September 2026 contract: CME E-mini Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ): tracks the Nasdaq 100 large-cap technology and growth index.
Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $29509.50
- ATM IV
- 9.2%
- HV 20-Day
- 18.1%
- HV 60-Day
- 27.2%
As of Aug 28, 2026, E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (September 2026) (NQU6) ATM implied volatility is 9.2%. 20-day realized volatility is 18.1%, producing an IV-HV spread of -8.9 vol points. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied, an inversion that can signal a pending IV expansion.
How NQU6 iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection
Strategy selection on E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (September 2026) options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 9.2% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.
How to read the NQU6 IV vs HV chart
The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 9.2%, against 18.1% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is currently below realized by 8.9 vol points, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying for the move - rare and often a setup for IV expansion. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.
NQU6 IV/HV regimes and trade selection
Using NQU6 vol history alongside the term structure
The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.
NQU6 IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context
Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. The ratio of HV-20 (18.1%) to HV-60 (27.2%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.
Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →
Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for NQU6 over the last ~42 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.
Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.
| Date | ATM IV | HV 20d | HV 60d | IV Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 2026 | 9.2% | 18.1% | 27.2% | - |
| Aug 27, 2026 | 17.4% | 18.0% | 27.2% | - |
| Aug 26, 2026 | 17.8% | 22.0% | 27.1% | - |
| Aug 25, 2026 | 18.5% | 24.0% | 27.1% | - |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 19.1% | 24.3% | 27.1% | - |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 18.5% | 24.0% | 27.1% | - |
| Aug 20, 2026 | 19.4% | 24.7% | 27.1% | - |
| Aug 19, 2026 | 18.7% | 25.4% | 27.3% | - |
| Aug 18, 2026 | 19.0% | 25.5% | 27.3% | - |
| Aug 17, 2026 | 17.9% | 25.2% | 27.1% | - |
| Aug 14, 2026 | 18.0% | 25.2% | 27.3% | - |
| Aug 13, 2026 | 18.6% | 26.0% | 27.3% | - |
| Aug 12, 2026 | 18.3% | 26.6% | 27.2% | - |
| Aug 11, 2026 | 19.4% | 26.5% | 27.4% | - |
| Aug 10, 2026 | 20.2% | 26.7% | 27.4% | - |
Frequently asked NQU6 iv/hv history questions
- Is NQU6 options pricing rich or cheap right now?
- As of Aug 28, 2026, E-mini Nasdaq 100 Futures (September 2026) (NQU6) ATM IV is 9.2% against 20-day realized volatility of 18.1%. Realized volatility currently exceeds implied: an inversion of the typical equity volatility risk premium that often precedes IV expansion.
- What is the NQU6 variance risk premium?
- The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. NQU6 is currently pricing inverted to the historical pattern, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
- What does NQU6 IV rank mean for strategy selection?
- IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. NQU6's current rank signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.