Eversource Energy (ES) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Snapshot as of Apr 16, 2026.

Spot Price

$68.97

ATM IV

22.5%

Put/Call Ratio

0.82

As of Apr 16, 2026, Eversource Energy (ES) at $68.97 has an ATM IV of 22.5%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$4.45. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ. Real-world distributions have fatter tails — risk-neutral probability analysis corrects for that by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices.