WTI Crude Oil Futures (August 2026) (CLQ6) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August 2026) (CLQ6) operates in the Energy Futures sector, specifically the Energy Futures industry, listed on NYMEX. WTI Crude Oil Futures August 2026 contract: NYMEX WTI Crude Oil futures (CL): the global benchmark for North American crude oil pricing, settling against physically deliverable barrels at Cushing, OK.

Snapshot as of Jul 16, 2026.

Spot Price

$79.05

HV 20-Day

48.5%

How CLQ6 probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on WTI Crude Oil Futures (August 2026) options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV varies by tenor and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the CLQ6 probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where WTI Crude Oil Futures (August 2026) spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns.

CLQ6 risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the CLQ6 distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →