WTI Crude Oil Futures (August 2026) (CLQ6) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

WTI Crude Oil Futures (August 2026) (CLQ6) operates in the Energy Futures sector, specifically the Energy Futures industry, listed on NYMEX. WTI Crude Oil Futures August 2026 contract: NYMEX WTI Crude Oil futures (CL): the global benchmark for North American crude oil pricing, settling against physically deliverable barrels at Cushing, OK.

Snapshot as of Jul 16, 2026.

Spot Price

$79.05

How to read the CLQ6 implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

CLQ6 expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move.

Sizing CLQ6 structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. CLQ6 put/call volume ratio currently at 0.78 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for CLQ6 derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $79.05 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.