What is the current ZSL expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Silver (ZSL) has an expected move of 28.45% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $21.89 to $39.29 from the current $30.59. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the ZSL expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is ZSL expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - UltraShort Silver (ZSL) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - UltraShort Silver (ZSL) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $5.7M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -0.90 to the broader market. The ProShares UltraShort Silver fund aims to deliver daily investment returns that effectively track twice the inverse (-2x) of the Bloomberg Silver SubindexSM's daily performance. public since 2008-12-03.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $30.59
Expected Move: 28.4%
Implied High: $39.29
Implied Low: $21.89
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Silver (ZSL) has an expected move of 28.45%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $21.89 to $39.29 from the current $30.59. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

ZSL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - UltraShort Silver pricing an expected move of 28.45% from $30.59, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the ZSL implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 28.45%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $21.89 to $39.29. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

ZSL expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. ZSL term-structure is in contango (slope 0.020), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing ZSL structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. ZSL put/call volume ratio currently at 2.07 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for ZSL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30.59 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	111.7%	8.3%	$33.12	$28.06
Jul 10, 2026	10	100.8%	16.7%	$35.69	$25.49
Jul 17, 2026	17	93.4%	20.2%	$36.76	$24.42
Jul 24, 2026	24	99.4%	25.5%	$38.39	$22.79
Jul 31, 2026	31	99.2%	28.9%	$39.43	$21.75
Aug 7, 2026	38	101.2%	32.7%	$40.58	$20.60
Aug 21, 2026	52	95.2%	35.9%	$41.58	$19.60
Nov 20, 2026	143	90.9%	56.9%	$47.99	$13.19
Jan 15, 2027	199	87.2%	64.4%	$50.29	$10.89
Feb 19, 2027	234	88.4%	70.8%	$52.24	$8.94
Jan 21, 2028	570	85.9%	107.3%	$63.43	$-2.25

Frequently asked ZSL expected move questions

What is the current ZSL expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort Silver (ZSL) has an expected move of 28.45% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $21.89 to $39.29 from the current $30.59. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the ZSL expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is ZSL expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.