What is the XSOE 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with XSOE at $46.70 and ATM IV at 34.2%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.58, or about $42.12 to $51.28.

What does XSOE risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future XSOE price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does XSOE ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (XSOE) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (XSOE) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $2.21B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.18 to the broader market. Typically, the fund commits a minimum of 80% of its total assets to the specific securities included in its underlying index, or to other investments that share substantially similar economic characteristics with those index components. public since 2014-12-29.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $46.70
ATM IV: 34.2%
IV Rank: 34.8%
IV Percentile: 72.6%
HV 20-Day: 35.8%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.032

As of Jul 15, 2026, WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund (XSOE) at $46.70 has an ATM IV of 34.2%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$4.58. IV rank is 34.8% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 72.6%. The 25-delta skew is +0.032: upside tail priced richer than downside, biasing probability mass above spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How XSOE probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 34.2% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the XSOE probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where WisdomTree Emerging Markets ex-State-Owned Enterprises Fund spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 34.2% and spot at $46.70, the 1σ band is approximately ±11.8% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 35.8% runs 1.6 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

XSOE risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the XSOE distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked XSOE probability analysis questions

What is the XSOE 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with XSOE at $46.70 and ATM IV at 34.2%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.58, or about $42.12 to $51.28.
What does XSOE risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future XSOE price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does XSOE ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.