State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $328.2M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.37 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index (the "Index")Seeks to provide exposure the retail segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Apparel Retail, Automotive Retail, Broadline Retail, Computer & Electronic Retail, Consumer Staples Merchandise Retail, Drug Retail, Food Retailers, and Other Specialty Retail. public since 2006-06-22.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $79.22
- Expected Move
- 7.7%
- Implied High
- $85.32
- Implied Low
- $73.12
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has an expected move of 7.71%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $73.12 to $85.32 from the current $79.22. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
XRT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF pricing an expected move of 7.71% from $79.22, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for XRT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $79.22 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 29.2% | 4.0% | $82.42 | $76.02 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 26.9% | 5.3% | $83.39 | $75.05 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 27.1% | 6.5% | $84.37 | $74.07 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 26.8% | 7.4% | $85.10 | $73.34 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 27.0% | 8.2% | $85.75 | $72.69 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 28.7% | 9.7% | $86.93 | $71.51 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 27.4% | 11.4% | $88.24 | $70.20 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 27.6% | 16.2% | $92.07 | $66.37 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 27.0% | 20.8% | $95.71 | $62.73 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 27.1% | 22.2% | $96.81 | $61.63 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 27.0% | 24.8% | $98.87 | $59.57 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 26.1% | 33.9% | $106.08 | $52.36 |
Frequently asked XRT expected move questions
- What is the current XRT expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has an expected move of 7.71% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $73.12 to $85.32 from the current $79.22. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the XRT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is XRT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.