What is the current XRT expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has an expected move of 6.68% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $76.88 to $87.88 from the current $82.38. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the XRT expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is XRT expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $349.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.17 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) is designed to replicate, before fees and expenses, the overall investment performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index. public since 2006-06-22.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $82.38
Expected Move: 6.7%
Implied High: $87.88
Implied Low: $76.88
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has an expected move of 6.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $76.88 to $87.88 from the current $82.38. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

XRT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF pricing an expected move of 6.68% from $82.38, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the XRT implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 6.68%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $76.88 to $87.88. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

XRT expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. XRT term-structure is in contango (slope 0.013), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states.

Sizing XRT structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. XRT put/call volume ratio currently at 0.14 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for XRT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $82.38 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	28.5%	2.1%	$84.12	$80.64
Oct 9, 2026	9	24.6%	3.9%	$85.56	$79.20
Oct 16, 2026	16	24.0%	5.0%	$86.52	$78.24
Oct 23, 2026	23	23.3%	5.8%	$87.20	$77.56
Oct 30, 2026	30	23.3%	6.7%	$87.88	$76.88
Nov 6, 2026	37	24.6%	7.8%	$88.83	$75.93
Nov 20, 2026	51	24.8%	9.3%	$90.02	$74.74
Dec 18, 2026	79	26.2%	12.2%	$92.42	$72.34
Jan 15, 2027	107	24.3%	13.2%	$93.22	$71.54
Mar 19, 2027	170	25.2%	17.2%	$96.55	$68.21
Sep 17, 2027	352	24.9%	24.5%	$102.52	$62.24
Jan 21, 2028	478	25.3%	29.0%	$106.23	$58.53
Jan 19, 2029	842	25.4%	38.6%	$114.16	$50.60

Frequently asked XRT expected move questions

What is the current XRT expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT) has an expected move of 6.68% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $76.88 to $87.88 from the current $82.38. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the XRT expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is XRT expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.