What is the XMLV 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with XMLV at $64.49 and ATM IV at 16.7%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.09, or about $61.40 to $67.58. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does XMLV risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future XMLV price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does XMLV ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF (XMLV) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF (XMLV) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $750.7M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.64 to the broader market. The Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF (Fund) is based on the S&P MidCap 400 Low Volatility Index (Index). public since 2013-02-15.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $64.49
ATM IV: 16.7%
IV Rank: 7.1%
IV Percentile: 63.5%
HV 20-Day: 9.0%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.013

As of May 29, 2026, Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF (XMLV) at $64.49 has an ATM IV of 16.7%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$3.09. IV rank is 7.1% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 63.5%. The 25-delta skew is -0.013: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How XMLV probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 16.7% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the XMLV probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Invesco S&P MidCap Low Volatility ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 16.7% and spot at $64.49, the 1σ band is approximately ±5.8% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 9.0% runs 7.7 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

XMLV risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the XMLV distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With XMLV IV rank at 7.1%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked XMLV probability analysis questions

What is the XMLV 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with XMLV at $64.49 and ATM IV at 16.7%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.09, or about $61.40 to $67.58. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does XMLV risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future XMLV price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does XMLV ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.