State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $5.62B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.45 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&P Metals and Mining Select Industry Index (the "Index")Seeks to provide exposure to the metals & mining segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Aluminum, Coal & Consumable Fuels, Copper, Diversified Metals & Mining, Gold, Precious Metals & Minerals, Silver, and SteelSeeks to track a modified equal weighted index which provides the potential for unconcentrated industry exposure across large, mid and small cap stocksAllows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional sector based investing public since 2006-06-22.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $115.69
- Expected Move
- 10.8%
- Implied High
- $128.16
- Implied Low
- $103.22
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) has an expected move of 10.78%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $103.22 to $128.16 from the current $115.69. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
XME Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF pricing an expected move of 10.78% from $115.69, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for XME derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $115.69 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 37.6% | 11.5% | $128.97 | $102.41 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 37.5% | 15.6% | $133.71 | $97.67 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 38.1% | 19.7% | $138.53 | $92.85 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 37.5% | 22.0% | $141.18 | $90.20 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 37.1% | 24.1% | $143.57 | $87.81 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 37.0% | 26.6% | $146.49 | $84.89 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 36.7% | 28.3% | $148.43 | $82.95 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 36.5% | 29.9% | $150.29 | $81.09 |
| Feb 19, 2027 | 280 | 36.3% | 31.8% | $152.47 | $78.91 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 35.0% | 45.5% | $168.29 | $63.09 |
Frequently asked XME expected move questions
- What is the current XME expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) has an expected move of 10.78% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $103.22 to $128.16 from the current $115.69. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the XME expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is XME expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.