Large Cap Ex-Mag 7 ETF (XMAG) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Large Cap Ex-Mag 7 ETF (XMAG) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $47.6M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 0.82 to the broader market. The Defiance Large Cap ex-Magnificent Seven ETF (the “Fund”) seeks to track the performance, before fees and expenses, of the BITA US 500 ex-Magnificent 7 Index (the “Index”). public since 2024-10-23.

Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.

Spot Price

$24.65

Expected Move

10.4%

Implied High

$27.21

Implied Low

$22.09

Front DTE

34 days

As of May 15, 2026, Large Cap Ex-Mag 7 ETF (XMAG) has an expected move of 10.38%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.09 to $27.21 from the current $24.65. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

XMAG Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Large Cap Ex-Mag 7 ETF pricing an expected move of 10.38% from $24.65, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for XMAG derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $24.65 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Frequently asked XMAG expected move questions

What is the current XMAG expected move?

As of May 15, 2026, Large Cap Ex-Mag 7 ETF (XMAG) has an expected move of 10.38% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.09 to $27.21 from the current $24.65. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the XMAG expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is XMAG expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.