State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $84.6M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.10 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of S&P Health Care Services Select Industry Index (the "Index")Seeks to provide exposure to health care services segment of the S&P TMI, which comprises the following sub-industries: Health Care Distributors, Health Care Facilities, Health Care Services, and Managed Health CareSeeks to track a modified equal weighted index which provides the potential for unconcentrated industry exposure across large, mid and small cap stocksAllows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional sector based investing public since 2011-09-29.

Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.

Spot Price
$112.63
Expected Move
5.8%
Implied High
$119.12
Implied Low
$106.14
Front DTE
34 days

As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS) has an expected move of 5.76%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $106.14 to $119.12 from the current $112.63. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

XHS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF pricing an expected move of 5.76% from $112.63, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for XHS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $112.63 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

ExpirationDTEATM IVExpected MoveImplied HighImplied Low
Jun 18, 20263420.1%6.1%$119.54$105.72
Jul 17, 20266318.9%7.9%$121.47$103.79
Sep 18, 202612619.8%11.6%$125.73$99.53
Dec 18, 202621720.0%15.4%$130.00$95.26

Frequently asked XHS expected move questions

What is the current XHS expected move?
As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Health Care Services ETF (XHS) has an expected move of 5.76% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $106.14 to $119.12 from the current $112.63. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the XHS expected move mean for traders?
Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is XHS expected move calculated?
The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.