State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $1.49B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.65 to the broader market. The State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of the S&PHomebuilders Select Industry Index (the "Index")Seeks to provide exposure to the homebuilders segment of the S&P TMI, comprising the Homebuilding sub-industry, and may include exposure to the Building Products, Home Furnishings, Home Improvement Retail, Homefurnishing Retail, and Household Appliances sub-industriesSeeks to track a modified equal weighted index which provides the potential for unconcentrated industry exposure across large, mid and small cap stocksAllows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional sector based investing public since 2006-02-06.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $96.57
- Expected Move
- 9.8%
- Implied High
- $105.99
- Implied Low
- $87.15
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has an expected move of 9.76%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $87.15 to $105.99 from the current $96.57. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
XHB Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF pricing an expected move of 9.76% from $96.57, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for XHB derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $96.57 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 34.1% | 4.7% | $101.13 | $92.01 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 31.7% | 6.2% | $102.57 | $90.57 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 34.3% | 8.2% | $104.52 | $88.62 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 34.0% | 9.4% | $105.66 | $87.48 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 34.1% | 10.4% | $106.62 | $86.52 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 34.1% | 11.6% | $107.74 | $85.40 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 33.6% | 14.0% | $110.05 | $83.09 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 34.7% | 20.4% | $116.26 | $76.88 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 34.3% | 26.4% | $122.11 | $71.03 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 33.9% | 27.8% | $123.39 | $69.75 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 33.7% | 31.0% | $126.47 | $66.67 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 31.9% | 41.4% | $136.59 | $56.55 |
Frequently asked XHB expected move questions
- What is the current XHB expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, State Street SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) has an expected move of 9.76% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $87.15 to $105.99 from the current $96.57. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the XHB expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is XHB expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.