US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF (XBIL) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF (XBIL) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $749.3M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 0.02 to the broader market. Under normal market conditions, The adviser seeks to achieve the fund’s investment objective by investing at least 80% of the fund’s net assets (plus any borrowings for investment purposes) in the component securities of the underlying index. public since 2023-03-07.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price

$50.03

ATM IV

424.3%

HV 20-Day

1.1%

HV 60-Day

1.0%

IV Rank

89.8%

IV Percentile

84.5%

As of May 29, 2026, US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF (XBIL) ATM implied volatility is 424.3%. 20-day realized volatility is 1.1%, producing an IV-HV spread of +423.2 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 89.8%.

How XBIL iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 424.3% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the XBIL IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 424.3%, 89.8% IV rank, against 1.1% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 423.2 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

XBIL IV/HV regimes and trade selection

XBIL sits in the top quartile of its 1-year IV range. High-IV-rank regimes statistically favor premium-selling - the elevated implied is more likely to mean-revert than to expand further. Iron condors, covered calls, and cash-secured puts collect more premium per unit of notional risk; size wings to the implied move and exit on first sign of HV catching up.

Using XBIL vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Contango (positive slope 0.407) is the resting state - longer-dated IV trades above near-dated IV because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

XBIL IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. XBIL's current 89.8% IV rank places the ticker in the expansion or stress phase of that cycle. Premium-selling carries the typical structural tailwind here, but the mean-reverting compression that completes the cycle has historically arrived sharply rather than gradually. The ratio of HV-20 (1.1%) to HV-60 (1.0%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for XBIL over the last ~41 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Frequently asked XBIL iv/hv history questions

Is XBIL options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of May 29, 2026, US Treasury 6 Month Bill ETF (XBIL) ATM IV is 424.3% against 20-day realized volatility of 1.1%. IV rank is 89.8%. XBIL options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 423.2 vol points.

What is the XBIL variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. XBIL is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does XBIL IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. XBIL's current rank of 89.8% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.