iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $493.5M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of -1.97 to the broader market. The iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETNs are designed to provide exposure to the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index Total Return. public since 2018-01-25.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $27.91
- Expected Move
- 16.8%
- Implied High
- $32.60
- Implied Low
- $23.22
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) has an expected move of 16.81%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $23.22 to $32.60 from the current $27.91. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
VXX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN pricing an expected move of 16.81% from $27.91, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for VXX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $27.91 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 42.5% | 5.9% | $29.55 | $26.27 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 45.9% | 9.0% | $30.42 | $25.40 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 53.0% | 12.7% | $31.46 | $24.36 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 58.3% | 16.1% | $32.42 | $23.40 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 59.2% | 18.1% | $32.95 | $22.87 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 60.4% | 20.5% | $33.63 | $22.19 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 66.9% | 27.8% | $35.67 | $20.15 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 73.1% | 37.9% | $38.48 | $17.34 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 77.3% | 45.4% | $40.59 | $15.23 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 79.9% | 61.6% | $45.10 | $10.72 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 82.0% | 67.2% | $46.66 | $9.16 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 96.3% | 125.1% | $62.83 | $-7.01 |
Frequently asked VXX expected move questions
- What is the current VXX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (VXX) has an expected move of 16.81% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $23.22 to $32.60 from the current $27.91. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the VXX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is VXX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.