What is the VUSB 30-day expected price range?

As of May 29, 2026, with VUSB at $49.83 and ATM IV at 23.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.40, or about $46.43 to $53.23.

What does VUSB risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future VUSB price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does VUSB ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF (VUSB) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF (VUSB) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $8.22B, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 0.10 to the broader market. The fund’s investment objective is to seek to provide current income while maintaining limited price volatility. public since 2021-04-07.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $49.83
ATM IV: 23.8%
IV Rank: 30.6%
IV Percentile: 75.4%
HV 20-Day: 1.4%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.005

As of May 29, 2026, Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF (VUSB) at $49.83 has an ATM IV of 23.8%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$3.40. IV rank is 30.6% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 75.4%. The 25-delta skew is +0.005: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How VUSB probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 23.8% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the VUSB probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Vanguard Ultra-Short Bond ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 23.8% and spot at $49.83, the 1σ band is approximately ±8.2% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 1.4% runs 22.4 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

VUSB risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the VUSB distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked VUSB probability analysis questions

What is the VUSB 30-day expected price range?: As of May 29, 2026, with VUSB at $49.83 and ATM IV at 23.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.40, or about $46.43 to $53.23.
What does VUSB risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future VUSB price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does VUSB ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.