What is the current VOO expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has an expected move of 3.84% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $676.71 to $730.79 from the current $703.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the VOO expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is VOO expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $1.71T, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.01 to the broader market. The fund employs an indexing investment approach designed to track the performance of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index, a widely recognized benchmark of U. public since 2010-09-07.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $703.75
Expected Move: 3.8%
Implied High: $730.79
Implied Low: $676.71
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has an expected move of 3.84%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $676.71 to $730.79 from the current $703.75. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

VOO Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Vanguard S&P 500 ETF pricing an expected move of 3.84% from $703.75, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the VOO implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 3.84%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $676.71 to $730.79. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

VOO expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. VOO term-structure is in contango (slope 0.003), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 16.6%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical VOO range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing VOO structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. VOO put/call volume ratio currently at 0.16 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for VOO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $703.75 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	14.6%	1.1%	$711.36	$696.14
Oct 9, 2026	9	12.8%	2.0%	$717.90	$689.60
Oct 16, 2026	16	12.9%	2.7%	$722.76	$684.74
Oct 23, 2026	23	13.1%	3.3%	$726.89	$680.61
Oct 30, 2026	30	13.4%	3.8%	$730.79	$676.71
Nov 6, 2026	37	13.7%	4.4%	$734.45	$673.05
Nov 20, 2026	51	13.8%	5.2%	$740.05	$667.45
Dec 18, 2026	79	14.2%	6.6%	$750.24	$657.26
Jan 15, 2027	107	14.4%	7.8%	$758.62	$648.88
Apr 16, 2027	198	15.7%	11.6%	$785.13	$622.37
Jun 17, 2027	260	16.7%	14.1%	$802.94	$604.56
Jan 21, 2028	478	17.9%	20.5%	$847.91	$559.59
Jun 16, 2028	625	18.6%	24.3%	$875.04	$532.46
Dec 15, 2028	807	19.2%	28.5%	$904.66	$502.84
Jan 19, 2029	842	19.3%	29.3%	$910.04	$497.46

VOO highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
CALL	$750.00	Jun 17, 2027	2.7K	123	14.3%	$23.50	$24.90

Top 1 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked VOO expected move questions

What is the current VOO expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) has an expected move of 3.84% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $676.71 to $730.79 from the current $703.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the VOO expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is VOO expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.