Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $16.81B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.11 to the broader market. Seeks to provide a moderate and sustainable level of current income. public since 2009-11-23.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $46.31
- Expected Move
- 5.1%
- Implied High
- $48.67
- Implied Low
- $43.95
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS) has an expected move of 5.10%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $43.95 to $48.67 from the current $46.31. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
VMBS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF pricing an expected move of 5.10% from $46.31, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for VMBS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $46.31 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 17.8% | 5.4% | $48.83 | $43.79 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 16.4% | 6.8% | $49.47 | $43.15 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 8.5% | 4.4% | $48.35 | $44.27 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 13.5% | 9.7% | $50.81 | $41.81 |
Frequently asked VMBS expected move questions
- What is the current VMBS expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities ETF (VMBS) has an expected move of 5.10% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $43.95 to $48.67 from the current $46.31. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the VMBS expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is VMBS expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.