What is the current VIXY expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) has an expected move of 14.56% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $15.90 to $21.32 from the current $18.61. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the VIXY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is VIXY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $175.4M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of -2.31 to the broader market. The ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) is structured with the primary objective of replicating the investment performance of the S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures Index. public since 2011-01-04.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $18.61
Expected Move: 14.6%
Implied High: $21.32
Implied Low: $15.90
Front DTE: 35 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) has an expected move of 14.56%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $15.90 to $21.32 from the current $18.61. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

VIXY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - VIX Short-Term Futures ETF pricing an expected move of 14.56% from $18.61, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the VIXY implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 14.56%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $15.90 to $21.32. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

VIXY expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. VIXY term-structure is in contango (slope 0.198), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 6.1%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical VIXY range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing VIXY structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. VIXY put/call volume ratio currently at 0.51 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for VIXY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $18.61 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	21.6%	3.0%	$19.17	$18.05
Sep 18, 2026	35	50.8%	15.7%	$21.54	$15.68
Dec 18, 2026	126	70.6%	41.5%	$26.33	$10.89
Jan 15, 2027	154	69.6%	45.2%	$27.02	$10.20
Mar 19, 2027	217	81.5%	62.8%	$30.30	$6.92
Jan 21, 2028	525	83.6%	100.3%	$37.27	$-0.05

Frequently asked VIXY expected move questions

What is the current VIXY expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, ProShares - VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (VIXY) has an expected move of 14.56% over the next 35 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $15.90 to $21.32 from the current $18.61. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the VIXY expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is VIXY expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.