ProShares - VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $46.9M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of -0.97 to the broader market. ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF seeks investment results, before fees and expenses, that track the performance of the S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures IndexTM. public since 2011-01-04.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $15.96
- Expected Move
- 7.7%
- Implied High
- $17.19
- Implied Low
- $14.73
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM) has an expected move of 7.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $14.73 to $17.19 from the current $15.96. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
VIXM Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF pricing an expected move of 7.68% from $15.96, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for VIXM derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $15.96 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 26.8% | 8.2% | $17.27 | $14.65 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 36.5% | 15.2% | $18.38 | $13.54 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 36.3% | 21.3% | $19.36 | $12.56 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 40.8% | 31.5% | $20.98 | $10.94 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 41.2% | 33.8% | $21.35 | $10.57 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 40.9% | 37.6% | $21.96 | $9.96 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 42.8% | 44.7% | $23.09 | $8.83 |
Frequently asked VIXM expected move questions
- What is the current VIXM expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF (VIXM) has an expected move of 7.68% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $14.73 to $17.19 from the current $15.96. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the VIXM expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is VIXM expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.