Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $14.14B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 2.23 to the broader market. Seeks to provide a high and sustainable level of current income. public since 2010-01-04.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $53.55
- Expected Move
- 2.4%
- Implied High
- $54.84
- Implied Low
- $52.26
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) has an expected move of 2.41%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $52.26 to $54.84 from the current $53.55. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
VGLT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF pricing an expected move of 2.41% from $53.55, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for VGLT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $53.55 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 8.4% | 2.6% | $54.92 | $52.18 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 8.9% | 3.7% | $55.53 | $51.57 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 9.2% | 4.8% | $56.10 | $51.00 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 9.6% | 6.9% | $57.25 | $49.85 |
Frequently asked VGLT expected move questions
- What is the current VGLT expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) has an expected move of 2.41% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $52.26 to $54.84 from the current $53.55. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the VGLT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is VGLT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.