Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $68.21B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 1.07 to the broader market. Seeks to provide a moderate and sustainable level of current income. public since 2009-11-23.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $81.97
- Expected Move
- 1.7%
- Implied High
- $83.33
- Implied Low
- $80.61
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) has an expected move of 1.66%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $80.61 to $83.33 from the current $81.97. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
VCIT Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF pricing an expected move of 1.66% from $81.97, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for VCIT derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $81.97 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 5.8% | 1.8% | $83.42 | $80.52 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 5.7% | 2.4% | $83.91 | $80.03 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 6.0% | 3.1% | $84.52 | $79.42 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 6.4% | 4.6% | $85.75 | $78.19 |
Frequently asked VCIT expected move questions
- What is the current VCIT expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF (VCIT) has an expected move of 1.66% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $80.61 to $83.33 from the current $81.97. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the VCIT expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is VCIT expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.