Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $175.69B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.16 to the broader market. Seeks to track the performance of the CRSP US Small Cap Index, which measures the investment return of small-capitalization stocks. public since 2004-01-30.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $282.25
- Expected Move
- 6.2%
- Implied High
- $299.65
- Implied Low
- $264.85
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) has an expected move of 6.16%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $264.85 to $299.65 from the current $282.25. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
VB Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Vanguard Small-Cap ETF pricing an expected move of 6.16% from $282.25, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for VB derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $282.25 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 21.5% | 6.6% | $300.77 | $263.73 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 21.5% | 8.9% | $307.46 | $257.04 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 21.4% | 12.6% | $317.74 | $246.76 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 21.4% | 16.5% | $328.82 | $235.68 |
Frequently asked VB expected move questions
- What is the current VB expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (VB) has an expected move of 6.16% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $264.85 to $299.65 from the current $282.25. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the VB expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is VB expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.