Roundhill Investments - Uranium ETF (UX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Roundhill Investments - Uranium ETF (UX) operates in the Energy sector, specifically the Oil & Gas Energy industry, with a market capitalization near $2.7M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 0.86 to the broader market. Roundhill believes that uranium is a crucial resource in meeting the growing global demand for reliable electricity, driven by the expansion of nuclear power. public since 2025-01-29.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $30.02
- Expected Move
- 8.3%
- Implied High
- $32.50
- Implied Low
- $27.54
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Uranium ETF (UX) has an expected move of 8.26%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $27.54 to $32.50 from the current $30.02. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
UX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Roundhill Investments - Uranium ETF pricing an expected move of 8.26% from $30.02, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for UX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $30.02 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 28.8% | 8.8% | $32.66 | $27.38 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 35.0% | 14.5% | $34.39 | $25.65 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 36.0% | 21.2% | $36.37 | $23.67 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 39.7% | 30.6% | $39.21 | $20.83 |
Frequently asked UX expected move questions
- What is the current UX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - Uranium ETF (UX) has an expected move of 8.26% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $27.54 to $32.50 from the current $30.02. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the UX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is UX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.