Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $5.32B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.48 to the broader market. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Total Return Index. public since 2010-11-05.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $49.89
- Expected Move
- 15.0%
- Implied High
- $57.39
- Implied Low
- $42.39
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) has an expected move of 15.04%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $42.39 to $57.39 from the current $49.89. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
URA Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Global X - Uranium ETF pricing an expected move of 15.04% from $49.89, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for URA derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $49.89 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 51.5% | 7.1% | $53.45 | $46.33 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 51.2% | 10.0% | $54.89 | $44.89 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 52.2% | 12.5% | $56.14 | $43.64 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 52.9% | 14.7% | $57.20 | $42.58 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 51.7% | 15.8% | $57.76 | $42.02 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 52.1% | 17.7% | $58.71 | $41.07 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 54.9% | 22.8% | $61.27 | $38.51 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 56.5% | 33.2% | $66.45 | $33.33 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 56.4% | 36.6% | $68.17 | $31.61 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 58.6% | 48.0% | $73.84 | $25.94 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 64.9% | 84.3% | $91.95 | $7.83 |
Frequently asked URA expected move questions
- What is the current URA expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) has an expected move of 15.04% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $42.39 to $57.39 from the current $49.89. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the URA expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is URA expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.