What is the current URA expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) has an expected move of 12.53% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $39.41 to $50.69 from the current $45.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the URA expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is URA expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $4.51B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.41 to the broader market. The Global X Uranium ETF, identified by the symbol URA, aims to replicate the overall performance of the Solactive Global Uranium & Nuclear Components Total Return Index. public since 2010-11-05.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $45.05
Expected Move: 12.5%
Implied High: $50.69
Implied Low: $39.41
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) has an expected move of 12.53%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $39.41 to $50.69 from the current $45.05. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

URA Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Global X - Uranium ETF pricing an expected move of 12.53% from $45.05, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the URA implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 12.53%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $39.41 to $50.69. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

URA expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. URA term-structure is in backwardation (slope 0.000), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window. With IV rank at 27.6%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical URA range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing URA structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. URA put/call volume ratio currently at 0.32 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for URA derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $45.05 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	39.6%	5.5%	$47.52	$42.58
Aug 28, 2026	14	43.4%	8.5%	$48.88	$41.22
Sep 4, 2026	21	44.6%	10.7%	$49.87	$40.23
Sep 11, 2026	28	43.7%	12.1%	$50.50	$39.60
Sep 18, 2026	35	43.7%	13.5%	$51.15	$38.95
Sep 25, 2026	42	45.3%	15.4%	$51.97	$38.13
Oct 2, 2026	49	45.6%	16.7%	$52.58	$37.52
Oct 16, 2026	63	45.5%	18.9%	$53.57	$36.53
Dec 18, 2026	126	46.7%	27.4%	$57.41	$32.69
Jan 15, 2027	154	48.5%	31.5%	$59.24	$30.86
Jan 21, 2028	525	54.1%	64.9%	$74.28	$15.82

Frequently asked URA expected move questions

What is the current URA expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, Global X - Uranium ETF (URA) has an expected move of 12.53% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $39.41 to $50.69 from the current $45.05. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the URA expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is URA expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.