ProShares - UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $4.80B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 3.11 to the broader market. ProShares UltraPro S&P500 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the daily performance of the S&P 500. public since 2009-06-25.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $140.35
- Expected Move
- 13.2%
- Implied High
- $158.85
- Implied Low
- $121.85
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO) has an expected move of 13.18%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $121.85 to $158.85 from the current $140.35. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
UPRO Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - UltraPro S&P500 pricing an expected move of 13.18% from $140.35, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for UPRO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $140.35 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 44.4% | 6.1% | $148.98 | $131.72 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 43.3% | 8.5% | $152.25 | $128.45 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 46.0% | 11.0% | $155.84 | $124.86 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 46.4% | 12.9% | $158.39 | $122.31 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 45.3% | 13.8% | $159.75 | $120.95 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 47.3% | 16.0% | $162.87 | $117.83 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 46.6% | 19.4% | $167.52 | $113.18 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 48.9% | 28.7% | $180.67 | $100.03 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 51.3% | 39.6% | $195.87 | $84.83 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 50.5% | 41.4% | $198.42 | $82.28 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 52.4% | 68.1% | $235.89 | $44.81 |
Frequently asked UPRO expected move questions
- What is the current UPRO expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro S&P500 (UPRO) has an expected move of 13.18% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $121.85 to $158.85 from the current $140.35. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the UPRO expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is UPRO expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.