Is UBT options pricing rich or cheap right now?

As of May 29, 2026, ProShares - Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) ATM IV is 457.5% against 20-day realized volatility of 20.6%. IV rank is 93.3%. UBT options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 436.9 vol points.

What is the UBT variance risk premium?

The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. UBT is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.

What does UBT IV rank mean for strategy selection?

IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. UBT's current rank of 93.3% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.

ProShares - Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) IV/HV History

Comparing implied volatility to historical (realized) volatility reveals whether options are priced rich or cheap relative to actual price movement. Persistent gaps can signal trading opportunities.

ProShares - Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $63.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 4.74 to the broader market. ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the ICE U. public since 2010-01-21.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $16.02
ATM IV: 457.5%
HV 20-Day: 20.6%
HV 60-Day: 20.3%
IV Rank: 93.3%
IV Percentile: 99.2%

As of May 29, 2026, ProShares - Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) ATM implied volatility is 457.5%. 20-day realized volatility is 20.6%, producing an IV-HV spread of +436.9 vol points. Options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently delivered, the volatility risk premium. IV rank is 93.3%.

How UBT iv/hv history Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on ProShares - Ultra 20+ Year Treasury options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The iv/hv history view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 457.5% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the iv/hv history data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the UBT IV vs HV chart

The dual-line chart above tracks ATM implied volatility (forward-looking, what the chain is pricing) against 20-day realized historical volatility (backward-looking, what actually happened). ATM IV currently prints at 457.5%, 93.3% IV rank, against 20.6% realized over the trailing 20 trading days. Implied is pricing above realized by 436.9 vol points, the typical variance-risk-premium positive state in which premium sellers earn the gap. Persistent IV-above-HV is the variance-risk-premium-positive state typical of equity markets; persistent IV-below-HV is rare and usually marks underpriced vol that often expands.

UBT IV/HV regimes and trade selection

UBT sits in the top quartile of its 1-year IV range. High-IV-rank regimes statistically favor premium-selling - the elevated implied is more likely to mean-revert than to expand further. Iron condors, covered calls, and cash-secured puts collect more premium per unit of notional risk; size wings to the implied move and exit on first sign of HV catching up.

Using UBT vol history alongside the term structure

The IV/HV gap on this page captures the level of premium; the term-structure slope on the volatility page captures its shape across expirations. Backwardation (negative slope -4.397) indicates acute near-term event risk - near-dated tenors price disproportionate vol. Pair the rank read with the slope read with the event calendar to choose the right tenor for the structure.

UBT IV/HV signal in volatility-cycle context

Equity-vol cycles tend to compress and expand on multi-month timeframes: a typical sequence runs low-IV-rank consolidation (months of flat tape, decaying premium) into a vol-expansion catalyst (earnings miss, macro shock, regime change) into elevated-IV-rank stress (premiums fat, dispersion high) back to mean-reverting compression. UBT's current 93.3% IV rank places the ticker in the expansion or stress phase of that cycle. Premium-selling carries the typical structural tailwind here, but the mean-reverting compression that completes the cycle has historically arrived sharply rather than gradually. The ratio of HV-20 (20.6%) to HV-60 (20.3%) gives a second cycle indicator: when 20-day exceeds 60-day, recent realization is running hotter than the trailing-quarter average - typically a sign that recent days have already started expanding vol regardless of where IV rank prints. Use the time series above to spot inflection points: meaningful IV/HV gap closures and openings tend to precede regime shifts by a few sessions.

Learn how implied vs realized volatility is reported and how to read the data →

Daily ATM implied volatility and 20-day realized (historical) volatility for UBT over the last ~41 trading days. The IV-HV gap measures the variance risk premium - when IV trades persistently above realized HV, premium-sellers earn the spread; when IV dips below HV, vol is structurally underpriced.

Daily values from end-of-day option_ticker_snapshots. Series sparse on illiquid tickers reflects gaps in the upstream end-of-day options data feed.

Most recent 15 trading days (descending). Older history appears in the chart above.

Date	ATM IV	HV 20d	HV 60d	IV Rank
May 29, 2026	457.5%	20.6%	20.3%	93.3%
May 28, 2026	452.7%	20.6%	20.3%	92.3%
May 27, 2026	490.3%	21.0%	20.2%	100.0%
May 26, 2026	238.9%	20.7%	20.5%	51.4%
May 22, 2026	7.9%	20.4%	20.5%	1.5%
May 21, 2026	19.1%	20.1%	20.6%	3.9%
May 20, 2026	22.1%	19.8%	20.5%	4.6%
May 19, 2026	23.6%	17.8%	19.9%	4.9%
May 18, 2026	370.8%	17.5%	19.9%	79.8%
May 15, 2026	24.2%	17.6%	19.9%	5.0%
May 14, 2026	189.3%	15.3%	18.9%	40.7%
May 13, 2026	18.1%	15.5%	18.9%	3.7%
May 12, 2026	17.4%	15.6%	19.0%	3.5%
May 11, 2026	444.5%	15.6%	18.9%	95.7%
May 8, 2026	18.7%	15.3%	19.8%	3.8%

Frequently asked UBT iv/hv history questions

Is UBT options pricing rich or cheap right now?: As of May 29, 2026, ProShares - Ultra 20+ Year Treasury (UBT) ATM IV is 457.5% against 20-day realized volatility of 20.6%. IV rank is 93.3%. UBT options are pricing in more volatility than the stock has recently realized: a positive variance risk premium worth 436.9 vol points.
What is the UBT variance risk premium?: The variance risk premium is the persistent gap between implied and subsequently realized volatility. In equity markets it averages positive because option sellers demand compensation for bearing variance shocks. UBT is currently priced consistently with this premium, which is one input to whether short-vol or long-vol structures carry their typical edge.
What does UBT IV rank mean for strategy selection?: IV rank normalizes the current ATM IV to its 1-year range: 0% is the low, 100% is the high. UBT's current rank of 93.3% signals where current pricing sits in its own 1-year history. High-rank regimes typically favor premium-selling structures (credit spreads, condors, covered calls); low-rank regimes typically favor premium-buying or long-volatility structures.