What is the TYO 30-day expected price range?

As of Oct 14, 2026, with TYO at $15.44 and ATM IV at 23.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.02, or about $14.42 to $16.46. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.

What does TYO risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future TYO price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does TYO ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TYO) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TYO) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $10.8M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -3.52 to the broader market. These Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bull & Bear 3X Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) aim to generate daily investment outcomes that mirror either triple (300%) the daily performance of the ICE U. public since 2009-04-16.

Snapshot as of Oct 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $15.44
ATM IV: 23.0%
IV Rank: 5.4%
IV Percentile: 78.2%
HV 20-Day: 28.4%
IV Skew 25Δ: 0.003

As of Oct 14, 2026, Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF (TYO) at $15.44 has an ATM IV of 23.0%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$1.02. IV rank is 5.4% (subdued, distribution priced tighter than usual). IV percentile is 78.2%. The 25-delta skew is +0.003: roughly symmetric wings. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How TYO probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 23.0% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the TYO probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where Direxion Daily 7-10 Year Treasury Bear 3X ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 23.0% and spot at $15.44, the 1σ band is approximately ±7.9% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 28.4% runs 5.4 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

TYO risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the TYO distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. With TYO IV rank at 5.4%, the chain is pricing tighter tails than recent realized history; buyers get cheaper optionality but need a real catalyst to monetize. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked TYO probability analysis questions

What is the TYO 30-day expected price range?: As of Oct 14, 2026, with TYO at $15.44 and ATM IV at 23.0%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$1.02, or about $14.42 to $16.46. IV rank is subdued, so the priced distribution is tighter than the 1-year typical width.
What does TYO risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future TYO price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does TYO ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.