What is the current TUA expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) has an expected move of 98.45% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $0.32 to $40.58 from the current $20.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TUA expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TUA expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Bonds industry, with a market capitalization near $759.4M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 1.29 to the broader market. The Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) endeavors to generate a total return, prior to expenses and fees, that at least equals, or ideally exceeds, the performance of the ICE US Treasury 7-10 Year Bond Index. public since 2022-11-16.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $20.45
Expected Move: 98.4%
Implied High: $40.58
Implied Low: $0.32
Front DTE: 17 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) has an expected move of 98.45%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $0.32 to $40.58 from the current $20.45. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TUA Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF pricing an expected move of 98.45% from $20.45, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TUA implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 98.45%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $0.32 to $40.58. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TUA expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TUA term-structure is in contango (slope 3.900), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. Combined with the 73.0% IV rank, the implied move is meaningfully wider than the typical TUA trailing range, so even premium-selling structures need wide wings to absorb the elevated regime.

Sizing TUA structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TUA put/call volume ratio currently at 0.00 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TUA derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $20.45 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 17, 2026	17	18.0%	3.9%	$21.25	$19.65
Aug 21, 2026	52	408.0%	154.0%	$51.94	$-11.04
Sep 18, 2026	80	419.6%	196.4%	$60.62	$-19.72
Dec 18, 2026	171	27.3%	18.7%	$24.27	$16.63

Frequently asked TUA expected move questions

What is the current TUA expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Simplify Short Term Treasury Futures Strategy ETF (TUA) has an expected move of 98.45% over the next 17 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $0.32 to $40.58 from the current $20.45. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TUA expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TUA expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.