What is the TSLT 30-day expected price range?

As of Jul 15, 2026, with TSLT at $17.14 and ATM IV at 96.2%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.73, or about $12.41 to $21.87.

What does TSLT risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future TSLT price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does TSLT ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $181.2M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 3.39 to the broader market. This ETF aims to provide daily returns that are double the performance of Tesla (TSLA) stock. public since 2023-10-19.

Snapshot as of Jul 15, 2026.

Spot Price: $17.14
ATM IV: 96.2%
IV Rank: 39.6%
IV Percentile: 63.9%
HV 20-Day: 124.0%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.091

As of Jul 15, 2026, T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF (TSLT) at $17.14 has an ATM IV of 96.2%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$4.73. IV rank is 39.6% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 63.9%. The 25-delta skew is -0.091: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How TSLT probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 96.2% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the TSLT probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where T-REX 2X Long Tesla Daily Target ETF spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 96.2% and spot at $17.14, the 1σ band is approximately ±33.2% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 124.0% runs 27.8 vol points above current implied, an inverted regime where premium buyers are underpaying.

TSLT risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. TSLT's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.091) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the TSLT distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked TSLT probability analysis questions

What is the TSLT 30-day expected price range?: As of Jul 15, 2026, with TSLT at $17.14 and ATM IV at 96.2%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$4.73, or about $12.41 to $21.87.
What does TSLT risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future TSLT price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does TSLT ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.