What is the current TQQQ expected move?

As of May 27, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) has an expected move of 17.92% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $67.15 to $96.47 from the current $81.81. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TQQQ expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TQQQ expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $31.34B, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 3.75 to the broader market. ProShares UltraPro QQQ seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times (3x) the daily performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index. public since 2010-02-11.

Snapshot as of May 27, 2026.

Spot Price: $81.81
Expected Move: 17.9%
Implied High: $96.47
Implied Low: $67.15
Front DTE: 30 days

As of May 27, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) has an expected move of 17.92%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $67.15 to $96.47 from the current $81.81. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TQQQ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - UltraPro QQQ pricing an expected move of 17.92% from $81.81, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TQQQ implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 17.92%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $67.15 to $96.47. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TQQQ expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TQQQ term-structure is in backwardation (slope -0.010), so near-dated tenors price in disproportionate vol - usually because of a known event in the front-month window.

Sizing TQQQ structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TQQQ put/call volume ratio currently at 1.15 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TQQQ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $81.81 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
May 29, 2026	2	59.6%	4.4%	$85.42	$78.20
Jun 5, 2026	9	58.7%	9.2%	$89.35	$74.27
Jun 12, 2026	16	61.6%	12.9%	$92.36	$71.26
Jun 18, 2026	22	62.7%	15.4%	$94.40	$69.22
Jun 26, 2026	30	62.5%	17.9%	$96.47	$67.15
Jul 2, 2026	36	61.5%	19.3%	$97.61	$66.01
Jul 17, 2026	51	63.1%	23.6%	$101.11	$62.51
Sep 18, 2026	114	67.2%	37.6%	$112.53	$51.09
Dec 18, 2026	205	68.1%	51.0%	$123.56	$40.06
Jan 15, 2027	233	67.7%	54.1%	$126.06	$37.56
Jan 21, 2028	604	68.0%	87.5%	$153.37	$10.25

TQQQ highest implied-volatility contracts

Type	Strike	Expiration	Volume	OI	IV	Bid	Ask
PUT	$42.50	Jan 21, 2028	4.9K	359	77.6%	$7.10	$8.80
CALL	$95.00	Jun 12, 2026	3.2K	244	58.6%	$0.52	$0.58
CALL	$82.00	May 29, 2026	15.8K	4.3K	59.6%	$1.33	$1.38

Top 3 contracts from the institutional-grade nightly options scan; ranked by iv within the broader S&P 500/400/600 + ETF universe.

Frequently asked TQQQ expected move questions

What is the current TQQQ expected move?: As of May 27, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) has an expected move of 17.92% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $67.15 to $96.47 from the current $81.81. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TQQQ expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TQQQ expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.