Roundhill Investments - S&P 500 Target 10 Managed Distribution ETF (TPAY) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Roundhill Investments - S&P 500 Target 10 Managed Distribution ETF (TPAY) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Global industry, with a market capitalization near $14.7M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 1.36 to the broader market. The Roundhill S&P 500 Target 10 Managed Distribution ETF (“TPAY”) is designed to pay monthly return of capital distributions to shareholders at an annualized rate of ten percent, while providing exposure to the S&P 500. Led by Andrew Serowik, public since 2019-01-31.

Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.

Spot Price

$53.55

Expected Move

15.5%

Implied High

$61.84

Implied Low

$45.26

Front DTE

34 days

As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - S&P 500 Target 10 Managed Distribution ETF (TPAY) has an expected move of 15.48%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $45.26 to $61.84 from the current $53.55. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TPAY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Roundhill Investments - S&P 500 Target 10 Managed Distribution ETF pricing an expected move of 15.48% from $53.55, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for TPAY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $53.55 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Frequently asked TPAY expected move questions

What is the current TPAY expected move?

As of May 15, 2026, Roundhill Investments - S&P 500 Target 10 Managed Distribution ETF (TPAY) has an expected move of 15.48% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $45.26 to $61.84 from the current $53.55. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TPAY expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TPAY expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.