Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $2.58B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 7.15 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull & Bear 3X ETFs seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%, or 300% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the ICE U. public since 2009-04-16.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $32.61
- Expected Move
- 9.2%
- Implied High
- $35.60
- Implied Low
- $29.62
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has an expected move of 9.18%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $29.62 to $35.60 from the current $32.61. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
TMF Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 9.18% from $32.61, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for TMF derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $32.61 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 31.4% | 4.3% | $34.03 | $31.19 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 30.8% | 6.0% | $34.58 | $30.64 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 31.9% | 7.7% | $35.11 | $30.11 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 32.2% | 8.9% | $35.52 | $29.70 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 31.7% | 9.7% | $35.77 | $29.45 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 33.5% | 11.4% | $36.32 | $28.90 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 33.1% | 13.8% | $37.09 | $28.13 |
| Aug 21, 2026 | 98 | 33.5% | 17.4% | $38.27 | $26.95 |
| Nov 20, 2026 | 189 | 34.8% | 25.0% | $40.78 | $24.44 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 35.8% | 29.3% | $42.17 | $23.05 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 37.8% | 49.1% | $48.62 | $16.60 |
Frequently asked TMF expected move questions
- What is the current TMF expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has an expected move of 9.18% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $29.62 to $35.60 from the current $32.61. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the TMF expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is TMF expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.