What is the current TMF expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has an expected move of 7.11% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $33.21 to $38.29 from the current $35.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the TMF expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is TMF expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $2.60B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 7.17 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull & Bear 3X ETFs endeavor to achieve daily investment outcomes, before accounting for fees and expenses. public since 2009-04-16.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $35.75
Expected Move: 7.1%
Implied High: $38.29
Implied Low: $33.21
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has an expected move of 7.11%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $33.21 to $38.29 from the current $35.75. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

TMF Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 7.11% from $35.75, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the TMF implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.11%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $33.21 to $38.29. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

TMF expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. TMF term-structure is in contango (slope 0.007), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 11.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical TMF range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing TMF structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. TMF put/call volume ratio currently at 0.55 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for TMF derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $35.75 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	31.3%	2.3%	$36.58	$34.92
Jul 10, 2026	10	23.9%	4.0%	$37.16	$34.34
Jul 17, 2026	17	25.3%	5.5%	$37.70	$33.80
Jul 24, 2026	24	24.8%	6.4%	$38.02	$33.48
Jul 31, 2026	31	24.8%	7.2%	$38.33	$33.17
Aug 7, 2026	38	25.5%	8.2%	$38.69	$32.81
Aug 21, 2026	52	25.8%	9.7%	$39.23	$32.27
Nov 20, 2026	143	28.7%	18.0%	$42.17	$29.33
Jan 15, 2027	199	29.8%	22.0%	$43.62	$27.88
Feb 19, 2027	234	30.1%	24.1%	$44.37	$27.13
Jan 21, 2028	570	32.1%	40.1%	$50.09	$21.41

Frequently asked TMF expected move questions

What is the current TMF expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, Direxion Daily 20+ Year Treasury Bull 3X ETF (TMF) has an expected move of 7.11% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $33.21 to $38.29 from the current $35.75. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the TMF expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is TMF expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.