ProShares - Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $69.7M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -2.38 to the broader market. ProShares Short 20+ Year Treasury seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to the inverse (-1x) of the daily performance of the ICE U. public since 2009-08-20.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $25.13
- Expected Move
- 3.4%
- Implied High
- $25.99
- Implied Low
- $24.27
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) has an expected move of 3.44%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $24.27 to $25.99 from the current $25.13. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
TBF Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - Short 20+ Year Treasury pricing an expected move of 3.44% from $25.13, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for TBF derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.13 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 12.0% | 3.7% | $26.05 | $24.21 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 13.1% | 5.4% | $26.50 | $23.76 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 12.3% | 7.2% | $26.95 | $23.31 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 12.7% | 9.8% | $27.59 | $22.67 |
Frequently asked TBF expected move questions
- What is the current TBF expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Short 20+ Year Treasury (TBF) has an expected move of 3.44% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $24.27 to $25.99 from the current $25.13. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the TBF expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is TBF expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.