Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $273.9M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.84 to the broader market. The BlackSwan ETF seeks investment results that correspond to the S-Network BlackSwan Core Index (the Index). public since 2018-11-06.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $33.27
- Expected Move
- 7.2%
- Implied High
- $35.66
- Implied Low
- $30.88
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) has an expected move of 7.20%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $30.88 to $35.66 from the current $33.27. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SWAN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF pricing an expected move of 7.20% from $33.27, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SWAN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $33.27 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 25.1% | 7.7% | $35.82 | $30.72 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 21.8% | 9.1% | $36.28 | $30.26 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 18.9% | 12.3% | $37.35 | $29.19 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 19.4% | 15.9% | $38.56 | $27.98 |
Frequently asked SWAN expected move questions
- What is the current SWAN expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Amplify BlackSwan Growth & Treasury Core ETF (SWAN) has an expected move of 7.20% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $30.88 to $35.66 from the current $33.27. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SWAN expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SWAN expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.