ProShares - Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $185.3M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 1.32 to the broader market. ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to one-half the inverse (-0. public since 2011-10-03.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $51.34
- Expected Move
- 8.2%
- Implied High
- $55.56
- Implied Low
- $47.12
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) has an expected move of 8.23%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $47.12 to $55.56 from the current $51.34. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SVXY Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF pricing an expected move of 8.23% from $51.34, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SVXY derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $51.34 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 28.7% | 8.8% | $55.84 | $46.84 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 29.8% | 12.4% | $57.70 | $44.98 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 35.9% | 21.1% | $62.17 | $40.51 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 38.0% | 29.3% | $66.38 | $36.30 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 37.9% | 31.1% | $67.28 | $35.40 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 40.5% | 52.6% | $78.35 | $24.33 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 763 | 41.5% | 60.0% | $82.14 | $20.54 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 43.2% | 69.5% | $87.03 | $15.65 |
Frequently asked SVXY expected move questions
- What is the current SVXY expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (SVXY) has an expected move of 8.23% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $47.12 to $55.56 from the current $51.34. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SVXY expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SVXY expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.