-1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
-1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $163.9M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 3.15 to the broader market. The index measures the daily inverse performance of a portfolio of first and second month VIX futures contracts. public since 2022-03-30.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $19.51
- Expected Move
- 14.5%
- Implied High
- $22.35
- Implied Low
- $16.67
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 14.55%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $16.67 to $22.35 from the current $19.51. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SVIX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With -1x Short VIX Futures ETF pricing an expected move of 14.55% from $19.51, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SVIX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $19.51 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 36.4% | 5.0% | $20.49 | $18.53 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 41.4% | 8.1% | $21.09 | $17.93 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 47.6% | 11.4% | $21.74 | $17.28 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 51.0% | 14.1% | $22.27 | $16.75 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 50.3% | 15.4% | $22.51 | $16.51 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 55.5% | 18.8% | $23.18 | $15.84 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 58.9% | 24.5% | $24.28 | $14.74 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 74.4% | 43.7% | $28.04 | $10.98 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 67.8% | 52.3% | $29.71 | $9.31 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 71.4% | 58.5% | $30.92 | $8.10 |
| Jun 17, 2027 | 398 | 78.9% | 82.4% | $35.58 | $3.44 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 77.2% | 100.3% | $39.08 | $-0.06 |
| Jun 16, 2028 | 763 | 78.6% | 113.6% | $41.68 | $-2.66 |
| Dec 15, 2028 | 945 | 83.2% | 133.9% | $45.63 | $-6.61 |
Frequently asked SVIX expected move questions
- What is the current SVIX expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 14.55% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $16.67 to $22.35 from the current $19.51. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SVIX expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SVIX expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.