What is the current SVIX expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 14.19% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $24.75 to $32.93 from the current $28.84. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the SVIX expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is SVIX expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

-1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

-1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $242.1M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 2.95 to the broader market. This index tracks the inverse daily returns generated by a basket of VIX futures, comprising those set to expire in the nearest two months. public since 2022-03-30.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $28.84
Expected Move: 14.2%
Implied High: $32.93
Implied Low: $24.75
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 14.19%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $24.75 to $32.93 from the current $28.84. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

SVIX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With -1x Short VIX Futures ETF pricing an expected move of 14.19% from $28.84, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the SVIX implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 14.19%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $24.75 to $32.93. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

SVIX expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. SVIX term-structure is in contango (slope 0.083), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 18.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical SVIX range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing SVIX structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. SVIX put/call volume ratio currently at 1.26 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for SVIX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $28.84 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	33.4%	2.5%	$29.55	$28.13
Oct 9, 2026	9	39.3%	6.2%	$30.62	$27.06
Oct 16, 2026	16	42.8%	9.0%	$31.42	$26.26
Oct 23, 2026	23	46.1%	11.6%	$32.18	$25.50
Oct 30, 2026	30	49.5%	14.2%	$32.93	$24.75
Nov 6, 2026	37	57.8%	18.4%	$34.15	$23.53
Nov 20, 2026	51	54.8%	20.5%	$34.75	$22.93
Dec 18, 2026	79	59.2%	27.5%	$36.78	$20.90
Jan 15, 2027	107	56.9%	30.8%	$37.72	$19.96
Mar 19, 2027	170	67.4%	46.0%	$42.11	$15.57
Jun 17, 2027	260	68.9%	58.2%	$45.61	$12.07
Sep 17, 2027	352	72.9%	71.6%	$49.49	$8.19
Jan 21, 2028	478	70.2%	80.3%	$52.01	$5.67
Jun 16, 2028	625	72.2%	94.5%	$56.09	$1.59
Dec 15, 2028	807	73.6%	109.4%	$60.40	$-2.72
Jan 19, 2029	842	70.4%	106.9%	$59.68	$-2.00

Frequently asked SVIX expected move questions

What is the current SVIX expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 14.19% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $24.75 to $32.93 from the current $28.84. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the SVIX expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is SVIX expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.