What is the current SVIX expected move?

As of Aug 14, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 11.89% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $23.34 to $29.64 from the current $26.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the SVIX expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is SVIX expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

-1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

-1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $222.2M, listed on CBOE, carrying a beta of 2.95 to the broader market. This index tracks the inverse daily returns generated by a basket of VIX futures, comprising those set to expire in the nearest two months. public since 2022-03-30.

Snapshot as of Aug 14, 2026.

Spot Price: $26.49
Expected Move: 11.9%
Implied High: $29.64
Implied Low: $23.34
Front DTE: 28 days

As of Aug 14, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 11.89%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $23.34 to $29.64 from the current $26.49. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

SVIX Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With -1x Short VIX Futures ETF pricing an expected move of 11.89% from $26.49, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the SVIX implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.89%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $23.34 to $29.64. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

SVIX expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. SVIX term-structure is in contango (slope 0.062), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 6.0%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical SVIX range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing SVIX structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. SVIX put/call volume ratio currently at 0.69 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for SVIX derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $26.49 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Aug 21, 2026	7	31.6%	4.4%	$27.65	$25.33
Aug 28, 2026	14	35.7%	7.0%	$28.34	$24.64
Sep 4, 2026	21	37.4%	9.0%	$28.87	$24.11
Sep 11, 2026	28	39.3%	10.9%	$29.37	$23.61
Sep 18, 2026	35	45.5%	14.1%	$30.22	$22.76
Sep 25, 2026	42	47.7%	16.2%	$30.78	$22.20
Oct 2, 2026	49	50.6%	18.5%	$31.40	$21.58
Dec 18, 2026	126	60.8%	35.7%	$35.95	$17.03
Jan 15, 2027	154	64.6%	42.0%	$37.61	$15.37
Mar 19, 2027	217	68.1%	52.5%	$40.40	$12.58
Jun 17, 2027	307	71.4%	65.5%	$43.84	$9.14
Jan 21, 2028	525	74.1%	88.9%	$50.03	$2.95
Jun 16, 2028	672	75.4%	102.3%	$53.59	$-0.61
Dec 15, 2028	854	77.4%	118.4%	$57.85	$-4.87

Frequently asked SVIX expected move questions

What is the current SVIX expected move?: As of Aug 14, 2026, -1x Short VIX Futures ETF (SVIX) has an expected move of 11.89% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $23.34 to $29.64 from the current $26.49. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the SVIX expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is SVIX expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.