What is the current SSO expected move?

As of Sep 30, 2026, ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) has an expected move of 7.91% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $64.37 to $75.43 from the current $69.90. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the SSO expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is SSO expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $8.25B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 2.01 to the broader market. The ProShares Ultra S&P500 is designed to provide daily returns, before accounting for any fees or expenses, that are double the daily performance of the S&P 500 index. public since 2006-06-21.

Snapshot as of Sep 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $69.90
Expected Move: 7.9%
Implied High: $75.43
Implied Low: $64.37
Front DTE: 30 days

As of Sep 30, 2026, ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) has an expected move of 7.91%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $64.37 to $75.43 from the current $69.90. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

SSO Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - Ultra S&P500 pricing an expected move of 7.91% from $69.90, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the SSO implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 7.91%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $64.37 to $75.43. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

SSO expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. SSO term-structure is in contango (slope 0.011), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 24.8%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical SSO range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing SSO structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. SSO put/call volume ratio currently at 0.92 indicates balanced flow without strong directional skew. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for SSO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $69.90 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Oct 2, 2026	2	29.0%	2.1%	$71.40	$68.40
Oct 9, 2026	9	25.6%	4.0%	$72.71	$67.09
Oct 16, 2026	16	25.5%	5.3%	$73.63	$66.17
Oct 23, 2026	23	26.1%	6.6%	$74.48	$65.32
Oct 30, 2026	30	27.6%	7.9%	$75.43	$64.37
Nov 6, 2026	37	28.7%	9.1%	$76.29	$63.51
Nov 20, 2026	51	27.1%	10.1%	$76.98	$62.82
Dec 18, 2026	79	27.5%	12.8%	$78.84	$60.96
Jan 15, 2027	107	27.5%	14.9%	$80.31	$59.49
Mar 19, 2027	170	28.7%	19.6%	$83.59	$56.21
Jan 21, 2028	478	34.6%	39.6%	$97.58	$42.22
Jan 19, 2029	842	33.9%	51.5%	$105.89	$33.91

Frequently asked SSO expected move questions

What is the current SSO expected move?: As of Sep 30, 2026, ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) has an expected move of 7.91% over the next 30 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $64.37 to $75.43 from the current $69.90. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the SSO expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is SSO expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.