ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $7.37B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 2.04 to the broader market. ProShares Ultra S&P500 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to two times (2x) the daily performance of the S&P 500. public since 2006-06-21.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $66.61
- Expected Move
- 8.2%
- Implied High
- $72.06
- Implied Low
- $61.16
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) has an expected move of 8.19%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $61.16 to $72.06 from the current $66.61. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SSO Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - Ultra S&P500 pricing an expected move of 8.19% from $66.61, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SSO derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $66.61 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 28.1% | 3.9% | $69.20 | $64.02 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 26.0% | 5.1% | $70.00 | $63.22 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 27.4% | 6.6% | $70.99 | $62.23 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 28.9% | 8.0% | $71.94 | $61.28 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 28.0% | 8.5% | $72.30 | $60.92 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 31.1% | 10.5% | $73.64 | $59.58 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 30.7% | 12.8% | $75.11 | $58.11 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 31.7% | 18.6% | $79.02 | $54.20 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 33.5% | 25.8% | $83.82 | $49.40 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 33.4% | 27.4% | $84.84 | $48.38 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 35.4% | 46.0% | $97.24 | $35.98 |
Frequently asked SSO expected move questions
- What is the current SSO expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - Ultra S&P500 (SSO) has an expected move of 8.19% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $61.16 to $72.06 from the current $66.61. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SSO expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SSO expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.