What is the current SPXU expected move?

As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) has an expected move of 11.67% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $32.71 to $41.35 from the current $37.03. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the SPXU expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is SPXU expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $469.0M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -2.75 to the broader market. The ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) aims to deliver daily investment performance that inversely correlates with the S&P 500 index, specifically targeting three times (-3x) the opposite of its day-to-day return. public since 2009-06-25.

Snapshot as of Jun 30, 2026.

Spot Price: $37.03
Expected Move: 11.7%
Implied High: $41.35
Implied Low: $32.71
Front DTE: 31 days

As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) has an expected move of 11.67%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $32.71 to $41.35 from the current $37.03. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

SPXU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 pricing an expected move of 11.67% from $37.03, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the SPXU implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.67%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $32.71 to $41.35. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

SPXU expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. SPXU term-structure is in contango (slope 0.009), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 22.4%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical SPXU range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing SPXU structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. SPXU put/call volume ratio currently at 0.33 indicates speculative call flow dominates - look for upside-skewed sentiment. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for SPXU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $37.03 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jul 2, 2026	2	36.6%	2.7%	$38.03	$36.03
Jul 10, 2026	10	33.2%	5.5%	$39.06	$35.00
Jul 17, 2026	17	38.1%	8.2%	$40.07	$33.99
Jul 24, 2026	24	38.5%	9.9%	$40.69	$33.37
Jul 31, 2026	31	41.0%	11.9%	$41.45	$32.61
Aug 7, 2026	38	41.9%	13.5%	$42.04	$32.02
Aug 21, 2026	52	41.5%	15.7%	$42.83	$31.23
Sep 18, 2026	80	43.1%	20.2%	$44.50	$29.56
Dec 18, 2026	171	49.8%	34.1%	$49.65	$24.41
Jan 15, 2027	199	49.2%	36.3%	$50.48	$23.58
Apr 16, 2027	290	55.2%	49.2%	$55.25	$18.81
May 21, 2027	325	57.2%	54.0%	$57.02	$17.04
Jan 21, 2028	570	64.0%	80.0%	$66.65	$7.41

Frequently asked SPXU expected move questions

What is the current SPXU expected move?: As of Jun 30, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) has an expected move of 11.67% over the next 31 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $32.71 to $41.35 from the current $37.03. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the SPXU expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is SPXU expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.