ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $447.9M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -2.75 to the broader market. ProShares UltraPro Short S&P500 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the S&P 500. public since 2009-06-25.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $38.68
- Expected Move
- 13.4%
- Implied High
- $43.87
- Implied Low
- $33.49
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) has an expected move of 13.43%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $33.49 to $43.87 from the current $38.68. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SPXU Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 pricing an expected move of 13.43% from $38.68, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SPXU derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $38.68 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 43.9% | 6.1% | $41.03 | $36.33 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 43.5% | 8.5% | $41.98 | $35.38 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 44.4% | 10.6% | $42.80 | $34.56 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 45.6% | 12.6% | $43.57 | $33.79 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 48.8% | 14.9% | $44.44 | $32.92 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 46.7% | 15.8% | $44.81 | $32.55 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 49.9% | 20.7% | $46.70 | $30.66 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 51.2% | 30.1% | $50.32 | $27.04 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 55.0% | 42.4% | $55.08 | $22.28 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 60.0% | 49.2% | $57.69 | $19.67 |
| Apr 16, 2027 | 336 | 65.5% | 62.8% | $62.99 | $14.37 |
| May 21, 2027 | 371 | 64.6% | 65.1% | $63.87 | $13.49 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 67.6% | 87.8% | $72.65 | $4.71 |
Frequently asked SPXU expected move questions
- What is the current SPXU expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro Short S&P500 (SPXU) has an expected move of 13.43% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $33.49 to $43.87 from the current $38.68. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SPXU expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SPXU expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.