What is the current SPXS expected move?

As of May 29, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS) has an expected move of 11.94% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.74 to $28.90 from the current $25.82. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the SPXS expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is SPXS expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $387.8M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -2.75 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull and Bear 3X ETFs seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%, or 300% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the S&P 500 Index. public since 2008-11-19.

Snapshot as of May 29, 2026.

Spot Price: $25.82
Expected Move: 11.9%
Implied High: $28.90
Implied Low: $22.74
Front DTE: 28 days

As of May 29, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS) has an expected move of 11.94%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $22.74 to $28.90 from the current $25.82. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

SPXS Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 11.94% from $25.82, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

How to read the SPXS implied-range chart

The shaded range above shows the one-standard-deviation implied price band at each listed expiration, derived from ATM implied volatility scaled to days-to-expiration. The front-tenor expected move is 11.94%, anchoring an implied range of approximately $22.74 to $28.90. Under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside that band; 95% fall inside ±2σ; 99.7% inside ±3σ. The empirical equity-return distribution has fatter tails than lognormal, so true tail-outcome frequency is moderately higher than these closed-form numbers suggest.

SPXS expected move and event pricing

Expected move widens with √time: a 5% 30-day move corresponds to roughly a 2.5% 7.5-day move and a 10% 120-day move. SPXS term-structure is in contango (slope 0.014), so longer-dated tenors price in proportionally more vol than √time scaling alone would suggest - typically because long-dated cycles include uncertain macro states. With IV rank at 11.3%, the implied move is at the low end of the typical SPXS range - cheap optionality for buyers, thin premium for sellers.

Sizing SPXS structures to the expected move

Iron condors with wings at ±1σ collect the modal-outcome premium; ±1.5σ widens probability of inside-range to ~87% but cuts collected premium roughly in half. Strangles do the inverse trade - they pay against the same lognormal distribution, profiting when realized exceeds implied. Calendar spreads bet on the slope of the term structure rather than the level. SPXS put/call volume ratio currently at 1.29 indicates protective put flow dominates - look for hedged-money positioning into the move. The expected move is the inputs the chain is pricing, not a forecast - realized moves above or below are normal under any distribution.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Shaded band shows the ±1σ implied price range (~68% probability under lognormal assumptions) at each expiration; the center line marks current spot. Bands widen with longer DTE since volatility scales with √time.

Per-expiration expected move for SPXS derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $25.82 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Expiration	DTE	ATM IV	Expected Move	Implied High	Implied Low
Jun 5, 2026	7	31.7%	4.4%	$26.95	$24.69
Jun 12, 2026	14	34.7%	6.8%	$27.57	$24.07
Jun 18, 2026	20	39.4%	9.2%	$28.20	$23.44
Jun 26, 2026	28	41.1%	11.4%	$28.76	$22.88
Jul 2, 2026	34	42.5%	13.0%	$29.17	$22.47
Jul 10, 2026	42	43.9%	14.9%	$29.67	$21.97
Jul 17, 2026	49	37.1%	13.6%	$29.33	$22.31
Oct 16, 2026	140	52.0%	32.2%	$34.14	$17.50
Jan 15, 2027	231	57.0%	45.3%	$37.53	$14.11
Jan 21, 2028	602	68.6%	88.1%	$48.57	$3.07

Frequently asked SPXS expected move questions

What is the current SPXS expected move?: As of May 29, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 3X ETF (SPXS) has an expected move of 11.94% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $22.74 to $28.90 from the current $25.82. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
What does the SPXS expected move mean for traders?: Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
How is SPXS expected move calculated?: The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.