Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF (SPXL) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF (SPXL) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $7.96B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 3.12 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull and Bear 3X ETFs seek daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 300%, or 300% of the inverse (or opposite), of the performance of the S&P 500 Index. public since 2008-11-05.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $267.78
- Expected Move
- 12.8%
- Implied High
- $301.96
- Implied Low
- $233.60
- Front DTE
- 28 days
As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF (SPXL) has an expected move of 12.77%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $233.60 to $301.96 from the current $267.78. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SPXL Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF pricing an expected move of 12.77% from $267.78, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SPXL derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $267.78 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2026 | 7 | 43.9% | 6.1% | $284.06 | $251.50 |
| May 29, 2026 | 14 | 42.8% | 8.4% | $290.23 | $245.33 |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | 44.2% | 10.6% | $296.17 | $239.39 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 28 | 44.3% | 12.3% | $300.64 | $234.92 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 44.9% | 13.7% | $304.48 | $231.08 |
| Jun 26, 2026 | 42 | 45.9% | 15.6% | $309.47 | $226.09 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 45.9% | 19.1% | $318.84 | $216.72 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 48.9% | 31.8% | $352.84 | $182.72 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 50.5% | 41.4% | $378.57 | $156.99 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 51.6% | 67.0% | $447.28 | $88.28 |
Frequently asked SPXL expected move questions
- What is the current SPXL expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3X ETF (SPXL) has an expected move of 12.77% over the next 28 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $233.60 to $301.96 from the current $267.78. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SPXL expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SPXL expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.