Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF (SPDN) Expected Move

Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.

Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF (SPDN) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $127.9M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -0.96 to the broader market. The Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, of 100% of the inverse (or opposite) of the performance of the S&P 500 Index. public since 2016-06-10.

Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.

Spot Price

$8.79

Expected Move

3.4%

Implied High

$9.09

Implied Low

$8.49

Front DTE

34 days

As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF (SPDN) has an expected move of 3.44%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $8.49 to $9.09 from the current $8.79. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.

SPDN Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move

With Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF pricing an expected move of 3.44% from $8.79, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.

Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →

Per-expiration expected move for SPDN derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $8.79 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.

Frequently asked SPDN expected move questions

What is the current SPDN expected move?

As of May 15, 2026, Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bear 1X ETF (SPDN) has an expected move of 3.44% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $8.49 to $9.09 from the current $8.79. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.

What does the SPDN expected move mean for traders?

Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.

How is SPDN expected move calculated?

The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.