SPCQ Butterfly Strategy
SPCQ (Tidal Trust II - Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SPCX ETF), in the Financial Services sector, (Asset Management industry), listed on CBOE.
SPCQ uses swap agreements and short-dated listed call options to make bearish bets on the share price of Space Exploration Technologies Corp. Class A (NASDAQ: SPCX). SPCX operates as an aerospace manufacturer, launch service provider, and satellite communications company. It develops and operates the Starlink satellite constellation and builds artificial intelligence tools. The fund seeks to maintain daily inverse leveraged exposure equivalent to -200% of the daily percentage change in SPCX price through daily rebalancing. Returns may deviate from the expected -2x if held for longer than a single day due to factors such as volatility and compounding effects.
SPCQ (Tidal Trust II - Defiance Daily Target 2X Short SPCX ETF) trades in the Financial Services sector, specifically Asset Management, with a market capitalization of approximately $124,741, a beta of 0.00 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 7.98-31.5, average daily share volume of 2.2M, a public-listing history dating back to 2026. These structural characteristics shape how SPCQ etf options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 0.00 indicates SPCQ has historically moved less than the broader market, dampening realized volatility and producing tighter expected-move bands per unit of dollar exposure.
What is a butterfly on SPCQ?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
SPCQ snapshot
As of September 29, 2026, spot at $10.96, ATM IV 87.80%, expected move 25.17%. The butterfly on SPCQ below is built from the September 29, 2026 end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 17-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on SPCQ specifically: IV rank is unavailable in the current snapshot, so regime-based timing for SPCQ is inferred from ATM IV at 87.80% alone, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 25.17% (roughly $2.76 on the underlying). The 17-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated SPCQ expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on SPCQ should anchor to the underlying notional of $10.96 per share and to the trader's directional view on SPCQ etf.
SPCQ butterfly setup
The SPCQ butterfly below is built from the September 29, 2026 end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With SPCQ at $10.96 on that close, the first option leg uses a $10.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed SPCQ chain at a 17-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 SPCQ shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $10.00 | $1.43 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $11.00 | $0.85 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $12.00 | $0.40 |
SPCQ butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$12.50
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $85.49
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$12.50
- Breakeven(s)
- $10.13, $11.88
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 6.840
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
SPCQ butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on SPCQ. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -99.9% | -$12.50 |
| $2.43 | -77.8% | -$12.50 |
| $4.85 | -55.7% | -$12.50 |
| $7.28 | -33.6% | -$12.50 |
| $9.70 | -11.5% | -$12.50 |
| $12.12 | +10.6% | -$12.50 |
| $14.54 | +32.7% | -$12.50 |
| $16.97 | +54.8% | -$12.50 |
| $19.39 | +76.9% | -$12.50 |
| $21.81 | +99.0% | -$12.50 |
When traders use butterfly on SPCQ
Butterflies on SPCQ are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SPCQ to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
SPCQ thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for SPCQ extends from approximately $8.20 on the downside to $13.72 on the upside. A SPCQ long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if SPCQ settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. As a Financial Services name, SPCQ options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to SPCQ-specific events.
SPCQ butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. SPCQ positions also carry Financial Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move SPCQ alongside the broader basket even when SPCQ-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current SPCQ chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on SPCQ?
- A butterfly on SPCQ is the butterfly strategy applied to SPCQ (etf). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With SPCQ etf at $10.96 on the September 29, 2026 close, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed SPCQ chain strike and the premiums come straight from that session's bid/ask midpoint.
- How are SPCQ butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the SPCQ butterfly priced from the September 29, 2026 end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 87.80%), the computed maximum profit is $85.49 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$12.50 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a SPCQ butterfly?
- The breakeven for the SPCQ butterfly priced on this page is roughly $10.13 and $11.88 at expiration, derived from the September 29, 2026 end-of-day chain's premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The SPCQ market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move in the same options snapshot is approximately 25.17%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on SPCQ?
- Butterflies on SPCQ are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SPCQ to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current SPCQ implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- Current SPCQ ATM IV is 87.80%; IV rank context is unavailable in the current snapshot.