Volatility Shares Trust - Solana ETF (SOLZ) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Volatility Shares Trust - Solana ETF (SOLZ) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $35.5M, listed on NASDAQ, carrying a beta of 0.84 to the broader market. SOLZ is designed for investors seeking long-term capital appreciation through 1x exposure to one of the fastest-growing blockchain ecosystems, without the technical challenges of direct cryptocurrency investment. public since 2025-03-20.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $9.00
- Expected Move
- 18.1%
- Implied High
- $10.63
- Implied Low
- $7.37
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Volatility Shares Trust - Solana ETF (SOLZ) has an expected move of 18.09%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $7.37 to $10.63 from the current $9.00. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SOLZ Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Volatility Shares Trust - Solana ETF pricing an expected move of 18.09% from $9.00, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SOLZ derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $9.00 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 63.1% | 19.3% | $10.73 | $7.27 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 56.6% | 23.5% | $11.12 | $6.88 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 62.9% | 40.9% | $12.68 | $5.32 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 64.2% | 52.6% | $13.73 | $4.27 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 82.0% | 106.5% | $18.59 | $-0.59 |
Frequently asked SOLZ expected move questions
- What is the current SOLZ expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Volatility Shares Trust - Solana ETF (SOLZ) has an expected move of 18.09% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $7.37 to $10.63 from the current $9.00. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SOLZ expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SOLZ expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.