SMOG Butterfly Strategy
SMOG (VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF), in the Financial Services sector, (Asset Management industry), listed on AMEX.
VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF (SMOG) seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS Global Low Carbon Energy Index (MVSMOGTR). The index is a rules based index intended to track the overall performance of renewable energy companies which may include, but is not limited to: wind, solar, hydro, hydrogen, bio-fuel or geothermal technology, lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles and related equipment, waste-to-energy production, smart grid technologies, or building or industrial materials that reduce carbon emissions or energy consumption.
SMOG (VanEck Low Carbon Energy ETF) trades in the Financial Services sector, specifically Asset Management, with a market capitalization of approximately $151.3M, a beta of 1.23 versus the broader market, a 52-week range of 107.45-157.27, average daily share volume of 2K, a public-listing history dating back to 2007. These structural characteristics shape how SMOG etf options price implied volatility around earnings windows, capital events, and macro-driven sector rotations.
A beta of 1.23 places SMOG roughly in line with broader market moves, so the strategy payoff and realized volatility track the index-equivalent baseline. SMOG pays a dividend, which adjusts put-call parity and shifts the ex-dividend pricing across the listed chain.
What is a butterfly on SMOG?
A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration.
Current SMOG snapshot
As of May 15, 2026, spot at $151.50, ATM IV 20.90%, IV rank 8.16%, expected move 5.99%. The butterfly on SMOG below is built from the same end-of-day chain, with strikes snapped to listed contracts and premiums pulled from the bid/ask midpoint at a 34-day expiry.
Why this butterfly structure on SMOG specifically: SMOG IV at 20.90% is on the cheap side of its 1-year range, which favors premium-buying structures like a SMOG butterfly, with a market-implied 1-standard-deviation move of approximately 5.99% (roughly $9.08 on the underlying). The 34-day window matched to the front-month expiry keeps theta exposure bounded while still capturing the post-snapshot move; longer-dated SMOG expiries trade a higher absolute premium for lower per-day decay. Position sizing on SMOG should anchor to the underlying notional of $151.50 per share and to the trader's directional view on SMOG etf.
SMOG butterfly setup
The SMOG butterfly below is built from the end-of-day chain, with each option leg priced at the bid/ask midpoint of its listed strike. With SMOG near $151.50, the first option leg uses a $144.00 strike; additional legs (when the strategy has them) anchor to spot-relative offsets. Premiums come from the bid/ask midpoint on the listed SMOG chain at a 34-day expiry; the cross-strike IV skew is reflected directly in the per-leg values rather than approximated. Quantity sizing assumes one contract per option leg (or 100 SMOG shares for the stock leg in covered calls and collars).
| Action | Type | Strike / Basis | Premium (est) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buy 1 | Call | $144.00 | $8.75 |
| Sell 2 | Call | $151.00 | $4.10 |
| Buy 1 | Call | $160.00 | $1.14 |
SMOG butterfly risk and reward
- Net Premium / Debit
- -$169.00
- Max Profit (per contract)
- $505.37
- Max Loss (per contract)
- -$369.00
- Breakeven(s)
- $145.69, $156.31
- Risk / Reward Ratio
- 1.370
Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit.
SMOG butterfly payoff curve
Modeled P&L at expiration across a range of underlying prices for the butterfly on SMOG. Each row is one sampled price point from the computed payoff curve; the full curve uses 200 price points internally before being summarized into 10 rows here.
| Underlying Price | % From Spot | P&L at Expiration |
|---|---|---|
| $0.01 | -100.0% | -$169.00 |
| $33.51 | -77.9% | -$169.00 |
| $67.00 | -55.8% | -$169.00 |
| $100.50 | -33.7% | -$169.00 |
| $134.00 | -11.6% | -$169.00 |
| $167.49 | +10.6% | -$369.00 |
| $200.99 | +32.7% | -$369.00 |
| $234.48 | +54.8% | -$369.00 |
| $267.98 | +76.9% | -$369.00 |
| $301.48 | +99.0% | -$369.00 |
When traders use butterfly on SMOG
Butterflies on SMOG are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SMOG to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
SMOG thesis for this butterfly
The market-implied 1-standard-deviation range for SMOG extends from approximately $142.42 on the downside to $160.58 on the upside. A SMOG long call butterfly is a pinning play: it pays maximum at the middle strike if SMOG settles there at expiration, with the wing legs capping both the cost and the maximum loss to the net debit. Current SMOG IV rank near 8.16% sits in the lower third of its 1-year distribution, where IV often re-expands toward the mean; this favors premium-buying structures and disadvantages premium-selling structures on SMOG at 20.90%. As a Financial Services name, SMOG options can move on sector-level news flow (peer earnings, regulatory updates, industry-specific macro data) in addition to SMOG-specific events.
SMOG butterfly positions are structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward); the modeled P&L assumes European-style exercise at expiration and ignores early assignment, transaction costs, dividends paid before expiry on the stock leg (when present), and the bid-ask spread on the listed chain. SMOG positions also carry Financial Services sector concentration risk; news flow inside the sector (peer earnings, regulatory shifts, supply-chain headlines) can move SMOG alongside the broader basket even when SMOG-specific fundamentals are unchanged. Always rebuild the position from current SMOG chain quotes before placing a trade.
Frequently asked questions
- What is a butterfly on SMOG?
- A butterfly on SMOG is the butterfly strategy applied to SMOG (etf). The strategy is structurally neutral / pin (limited-risk, limited-reward): A long call butterfly buys one lower-strike call, sells two ATM calls, and buys one higher-strike call, paying a small net debit for a defined-risk position that maxes out if the underlying pins the middle strike at expiration. With SMOG etf trading near $151.50, the strikes shown on this page are snapped to the nearest listed SMOG chain strike and the premiums come straight from the end-of-day bid/ask midpoint.
- How are SMOG butterfly max profit and max loss calculated?
- Max profit equals the wing width minus net debit times 100 (reached when the underlying pins the middle strike); max loss equals the net debit times 100. Two breakevens at lower-wing plus debit and upper-wing minus debit. For the SMOG butterfly priced from the end-of-day chain at a 30-day expiry (ATM IV 20.90%), the computed maximum profit is $505.37 per contract and the computed maximum loss is -$369.00 per contract. Live intraday quotes will differ as the chain moves through the trading session.
- What is the breakeven for a SMOG butterfly?
- The breakeven for the SMOG butterfly priced on this page is roughly $145.69 and $156.31 at expiration, derived from end-of-day chain premiums. Breakeven is the underlying price at which the strategy's P&L crosses zero ignoring transaction costs and assignment risk. The current SMOG market-implied 1-standard-deviation expected move is approximately 5.99%; if the move sits well outside the breakeven distance, the structure's risk-reward becomes correspondingly tighter.
- When should you consider a butterfly on SMOG?
- Butterflies on SMOG are pinning bets - traders use them when they expect SMOG to settle near a specific level at expiration (often the prior close, a round number, or the max-pain strike) and want defined-risk exposure to that outcome.
- How does current SMOG implied volatility affect this butterfly?
- SMOG ATM IV is at 20.90% with IV rank near 8.16%, which is on the low end of its 1-year range. Premium-buying structures (long call, long put, debit spreads) are relatively cheap in this regime; premium-selling structures collect less credit per unit risk.