ProShares - UltraPro Short MidCap400 (SMDD) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
ProShares - UltraPro Short MidCap400 (SMDD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $2.5M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -3.07 to the broader market. ProShares UltraPro Short MidCap400 seeks daily investment results, before fees and expenses, that correspond to three times the inverse (-3x) of the daily performance of the S&P MidCap 400. public since 2010-02-11.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $9.23
- Expected Move
- 28.7%
- Implied High
- $11.88
- Implied Low
- $6.58
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro Short MidCap400 (SMDD) has an expected move of 28.73%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $6.58 to $11.88 from the current $9.23. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SMDD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With ProShares - UltraPro Short MidCap400 pricing an expected move of 28.73% from $9.23, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SMDD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $9.23 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 100.2% | 30.6% | $12.05 | $6.41 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 92.0% | 38.2% | $12.76 | $5.70 |
| Oct 16, 2026 | 154 | 111.0% | 72.1% | $15.88 | $2.58 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 96.6% | 79.1% | $16.53 | $1.93 |
Frequently asked SMDD expected move questions
- What is the current SMDD expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, ProShares - UltraPro Short MidCap400 (SMDD) has an expected move of 28.73% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $6.58 to $11.88 from the current $9.23. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SMDD expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SMDD expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.