Global X - Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) Expected Move
Expected move estimates the probable price range for a given period based on at-the-money options pricing. It reflects the market consensus for volatility over the selected timeframe.
Global X - Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management industry, with a market capitalization near $4.41B, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of 0.24 to the broader market. The Global X Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) seeks to provide investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the Global X Defense Tech Index. Led by None, public since 2024-06-17.
Snapshot as of May 15, 2026.
- Spot Price
- $62.27
- Expected Move
- 7.7%
- Implied High
- $67.05
- Implied Low
- $57.49
- Front DTE
- 34 days
As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) has an expected move of 7.68%, a one-standard-deviation implied price range of roughly $57.49 to $67.05 from the current $62.27. Expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market's pricing of a ±1σ move. Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within this range under lognormal assumptions, though empirical markets have fatter tails.
SHLD Strategy Sizing to the Expected Move
With Global X - Defense Tech ETF pricing an expected move of 7.68% from $62.27, risk-defined strategies sized to the implied range structurally target the modal outcome distribution. Iron condors with wings at the ±1σ expected move boundaries collect premium against the ~68% probability that spot stays inside the range under lognormal assumptions; strangles set wider at ±1.5σ or ±2σ target the tails but pay smaller per-trade premium. Long-vol structures (long straddles, ratio backspreads) profit when realized move exceeds the implied move, the inverse trade: they bet against the lognormal assumption itself, capitalizing on the empirically fatter equity-return tails.
Learn how expected move is reported and how to read the data →
Per-expiration expected move for SHLD derived from ATM implied volatility at each listed expiration. Implied high/low bounds are computed as $62.27 × (1 ± expected move %). One standard-deviation range under lognormal assumptions, roughly 68% of outcomes fall inside.
| Expiration | DTE | ATM IV | Expected Move | Implied High | Implied Low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 18, 2026 | 34 | 26.8% | 8.2% | $67.36 | $57.18 |
| Jul 17, 2026 | 63 | 28.0% | 11.6% | $69.51 | $55.03 |
| Sep 18, 2026 | 126 | 27.9% | 16.4% | $72.48 | $52.06 |
| Dec 18, 2026 | 217 | 29.1% | 22.4% | $76.24 | $48.30 |
| Jan 15, 2027 | 245 | 28.3% | 23.2% | $76.71 | $47.83 |
| Mar 19, 2027 | 308 | 27.3% | 25.1% | $77.89 | $46.65 |
| Jan 21, 2028 | 616 | 29.1% | 37.8% | $85.81 | $38.73 |
Frequently asked SHLD expected move questions
- What is the current SHLD expected move?
- As of May 15, 2026, Global X - Defense Tech ETF (SHLD) has an expected move of 7.68% over the next 34 days, implying a one-standard-deviation price range of $57.49 to $67.05 from the current $62.27. The expected move is derived from at-the-money straddle pricing and represents the market consensus for a ±1σ price move.
- What does the SHLD expected move mean for traders?
- Roughly 68% of outcomes should fall within ±1 expected move and 95% within ±2 under lognormal assumptions, though equity returns have empirically fatter tails than log-normal predicts. Strategies sized to the expected move (iron condors at ±1σ, strangles at ±1.5σ) target the typical outcome distribution; strategies that profit from tail moves (long-vol structures, ratio backspreads) target the tails the lognormal model under-prices.
- How is SHLD expected move calculated?
- The expected move displayed here is derived from at-the-money implied volatility scaled to the chosen tenor: expected move % is approximately ATM IV times sqrt(T / 365), where T is days to expiration. An equivalent straddle-based form: the ATM straddle (call + put at the same strike) is roughly sqrt(2/pi) times spot times IV times sqrt(T/365), so the implied one-standard-deviation move is approximately 1.25 times ATM straddle divided by spot. The two formulations agree once the sqrt(2/pi) constant is reconciled.