What is the SDS 30-day expected price range?

As of Aug 28, 2026, with SDS at $54.14 and ATM IV at 24.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.85, or about $50.29 to $57.99.

What does SDS risk-neutral density tell us?

Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future SDS price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.

How does SDS ATM IV translate to a probability range?

ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.

ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) Probability Analysis

Probability analysis extracts the risk-neutral probability distribution implied by option prices. It shows the market-implied likelihood of the underlying reaching various price levels by expiration.

ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) operates in the Financial Services sector, specifically the Asset Management - Leveraged industry, with a market capitalization near $280.1M, listed on AMEX, carrying a beta of -1.93 to the broader market. The ProShares UltraShort S&P500 fund is engineered to provide daily investment outcomes that mirror negative two times (-2x) the daily fluctuations of the S&P 500 index. public since 2006-07-13.

Snapshot as of Aug 28, 2026.

Spot Price: $54.14
ATM IV: 24.8%
IV Rank: 33.5%
IV Percentile: 19.0%
HV 20-Day: 21.6%
IV Skew 25Δ: -0.118

As of Aug 28, 2026, ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 (SDS) at $54.14 has an ATM IV of 24.8%, implying a 30-day one-standard-deviation range of approximately ±$3.85. IV rank is 33.5% (near its 1-year median). IV percentile is 19.0%. The 25-delta skew is -0.118: downside tail priced richer than upside, biasing probability mass below spot. Under lognormal assumptions roughly 68% of outcomes fall within ±1σ and 95% within ±2σ; risk-neutral probability analysis refines this by extracting the market-implied distribution directly from options prices, capturing the fat tails that real markets exhibit.

How SDS probability analysis Data Feeds Strategy Selection

Strategy selection on ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 options does not derive from any single metric in isolation. The probability analysis view above sits inside a broader read: ATM IV currently sits at 24.8% and dealer gamma exposure is positive, so dealer hedging is mechanically mean-reverting. Combine the probability analysis data here with the volatility-skew surface, dealer-gamma exposure, max-pain level, and upcoming-events calendar to build a positioning thesis. Risk-defined structures (credit spreads, debit spreads, iron condors) are usually safer than naked positions while the regime is uncertain; the data on this page anchors the inputs but does not by itself constitute a trade thesis.

How to read the SDS probability distribution

The probability cone above is the option-market-implied distribution of where ProShares - UltraShort S&P500 spot could end up at expiration. It's derived from the implied-volatility surface via a risk-neutral pricing transformation, not from historical realized returns. With ATM IV at 24.8% and spot at $54.14, the 1σ band is approximately ±8.6% over a 30-day horizon. Recent realized HV-20 of 21.6% runs 3.2 vol points below the current implied, suggesting the chain is pricing more dispersion than the underlying has been delivering.

SDS risk-neutral vs real-world probabilities

The probabilities derived from option prices reflect the market's risk-adjusted view, not the realized statistical distribution. Risk-neutral probabilities include the equity risk premium and skew preferences priced into options, so they tend to overstate tail probability and understate upside drift relative to actually-realized outcomes. SDS's put-skewed 25-delta surface (-0.118) means downside risk-neutral probabilities are higher than upside - the empirical bias is well-documented. For probability-of-touch calculations and assignment-risk modeling, risk-neutral is the right benchmark. For position-sizing your own conviction, blend with realized-volatility-based statistics from the HV columns.

Trading the SDS distribution

Probability-driven strategies aim to capture mispricings between the implied distribution and your own probability assessment. Premium-selling structures (credit spreads, iron condors, cash-secured puts) profit when the implied distribution overprices tail probability relative to realized; premium-buying (debit spreads, long calls/puts, long straddles) profits in the reverse. Always pair probability-driven strategy selection with a stop loss or wing-defined risk - the implied distribution is a snapshot, and regime shifts can invalidate it intraday.

Learn how risk-neutral density is reported and how to read the data →

Frequently asked SDS probability analysis questions

What is the SDS 30-day expected price range?: As of Aug 28, 2026, with SDS at $54.14 and ATM IV at 24.8%, the implied 30-day one-standard-deviation range is approximately ±$3.85, or about $50.29 to $57.99.
What does SDS risk-neutral density tell us?: Risk-neutral density is the probability distribution of future SDS price implied by listed option prices. Extracted via Breeden-Litzenberger (twice-differentiating the call price function with respect to strike), it represents the pricing kernel rather than the real-world probability of outcomes. Persistent skew or fat-tail features in the density reflect how the market is pricing tail risk.
How does SDS ATM IV translate to a probability range?: ATM IV is annualized; multiplying by sqrt(t/365) scales it to the chosen tenor. Under lognormal assumptions, the resulting standard deviation defines the ±1σ band that contains roughly 68% of outcomes, ±2σ for 95%. Empirical equity returns have fatter tails than log-normal, so the implied tail probabilities under-state realized tail frequency in stressed regimes.